In summary
- Analysts agree that 2026 is unlikely to bring a crypto winter.
- Short-term volatility is likely, but Bitcoin is expected to remain strong and reach new all-time highs.
- Altcoins and Ethereum may depend more on regulatory developments, especially the fate of a US crypto market structure bill.
In 2025, advantageous regulatory outcomes helped fuel a wild cryptocurrency bull run, but that hot streak has since petered out. Now many merchants are wondering: Was this it? Is it back to another bear market? already?
For DecipherIn the annual Crypto Crystal Ball series, we delve into the questions that could define the coming year for digital assets and what they mean for you.
We’ve already discussed whether the cryptocurrency industry will be able to pass its coveted market structure bill and whether Wall Street is poised to soon become the sector’s next enemy. Today we pose a question that will surely be on the minds of many of you: Will 2026 be a crypto winter?
While financial analysts have somewhat divergent views on where next year is likely to go, most agree that the answer to that burning question is a resounding one. No.
“We don’t see crypto winter on the horizon in any sense,” said Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale. Decipher of the company’s prospects for 2026.
Pandl predicts, on the contrary, that Bitcoin will likely break another all-time price record in the first half of the year. The token reached its most recent all-time high of $126,000 in early October, but has since fallen significantly.
Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, agrees that 2026 will not become a cryptocurrency bear market, but he also believes that the year will go a little less smoothly. He anticipates 2026 to be a “volatile mix” of intense moves for Bitcoin and Ethereum in both directions.
“I think 2026 will be scary at the beginning for long cryptocurrencies, and then great at the back for long cryptocurrencies,” Magadini said. Decipher.
The analyst anticipates that Bitcoin will likely fall below $67,000 in the first months of the year, before eventually reaching a new all-time high, potentially between $150,000 and $200,000.
The difference in perspective between analysts comes down to what they believe is driving the current cryptocurrency bull run. Magadini, for example, believes that cryptocurrency prices are now firmly tied to macroeconomic sentiment, which he anticipates will fall due to a credit crisis in the first third of 2026, before recovering after central banks respond to the challenge.
“Everything that is specific to cryptocurrencies is already discounted and has been as good as possible,” Magadini said.
Grayscale’s Zach Pandl disagrees. He argues that the resilience of the cryptocurrency bull market will be determined by two intra-industry trends: the demand for alternative stores of value and additional regulatory measures that accelerate the trend of crypto integration with the traditional economy.
It’s that outlook that leads Pandl to predict that Bitcoin, in a league of its own as an alternative store of value, is poised for a strong 2026. But altcoins, and Ethereum to a lesser degree, are much more dependent on the regulatory narrative, he said, which will depend next year on the passage of a bill on the structure of the crypto market in the United States.
If that bill doesn’t pass, as we explored in a previous post in this series, then altcoins, and potentially Ethereum, could have a tougher year than Bitcoin, Pandl said.
Daily report Fact sheet
Start each day with the biggest news stories, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
