Ethereum once again failed to hold above a critical resistance zone, retreating from the $3,300 level towards the $3,100 area. The pullback highlights the market’s ongoing struggle to establish a sustainable recovery, as bullish momentum continues to fade near key technical thresholds. While buyers have managed to avoid a deeper correction for now, the inability to reclaim higher levels has reinforced a cautious tone across the market.
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Beyond price action, on-chain data adds an important layer to this weakness. According to data from CryptoQuant, Ethereum’s Coinbase premium gap has fallen sharply into negative territory. This metric, often used as an indicator of US institutional demand, reflects the price difference between Coinbase and offshore exchanges. A negative reading suggests that buying interest from US-based investors is lagging global activity, reducing the likelihood of a strong upside continuation.
Historically, sustained Ethereum rallies have coincided with a positive Coinbase premium, indicating continued institutional accumulation. The current divergence between attempts to stabilize prices and weakening US demand creates a structural obstacle for the bulls. As long as this premium remains negative, recovering the $3,300 level becomes increasingly difficult.
For now, Ethereum appears stuck in a fragile range, where price stability depends less on aggressive buying and more on the absence of renewed selling pressure. The next sessions will be decisive to determine if this consolidation evolves towards a recovery or resolves downwards.
Coinbase Premium Weakness Undermines Recovery Attempt
A new on-chain signal is reinforcing the cautious outlook for Ethereum as it trades below key resistance. Analysis shared by CryptoQuant and highlighted by CryptoOnchain shows that Coinbase’s premium gap has deteriorated sharply, reaching its most negative level in almost a year. The metric’s 14-day moving average has fallen to around -2.3, indicating that ETH prices on Coinbase are trading at a notable discount compared to Binance.
This divergence is important because Coinbase activity is often used as an indicator of US institutional demand. When the premium turns deeply negative, it typically indicates that buyers in the US spot market are stepping aside or actively distributing rather than accumulating. That dynamic is developing as Ethereum remains limited below the $3,300 resistance zone, following its sharp correction from the October high near $4,700.
The combination of weak price following and declining demand for Coinbase creates a bearish divergence. While ETH attempts to stabilize, the lack of institutional participation reduces the likelihood of a sustained breakout. Historically, strong Ethereum rallies have required a positive Coinbase premium, reflecting steady inflows from US-based investors.
Until this gap narrows and returns to positive territory, Ethereum’s upside potential appears limited. For now, the data suggests caution is warranted, as continued weak US demand raises the risk that the recent consolidation turns into another leg lower rather than a confirmed recovery.
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Ethereum Struggles as Recovery Lacks Confirmation
Ethereum price action remains fragile after failing to reclaim the $3,300 resistance zone. On the daily chart, ETH is trading near the $3,100 to $3,150 area, a level that has acted as a short-term pivot but has yet to attract strong follow-through from buyers. The broader structure still reflects a corrective phase rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
From a technical perspective, ETH remains below its key moving averages. The 50-day moving average is sloping downward and continues to limit bullish attempts, while the 100-day and 200-day moving averages remain higher, reinforcing an overall heavy supply zone between around $3,300 and $3,600. Every rally in this region over the past few weeks has been met with renewed selling pressure, highlighting the persistent distribution.
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The sequence of lower highs since the October high near $4,700 remains intact. Although the price has stabilized compared to the sharp sell-off in November, the rally so far looks more like a consolidation within a bearish structure than a new impulsive move. Volume has also moderated during recent advances, suggesting limited conviction behind the rebound.
On the downside, the $2,900 to $3,000 range stands out as a critical support area. A sustained break below this zone would expose Ethereum to a deeper pullback towards the mid-$2,600s. For the bullish momentum to regain credibility, ETH must reclaim $3,300 strongly and stay above the declining moving averages. Until then, the chart suggests caution as downside risks remain present despite near-term stabilization.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
