XRP posts its biggest increase in realized losses since 2022 as price compresses against long-term channel support near $1.40.
Fear seems high, but historical precedent suggests that large loss realization is often concentrated near exhaustion points rather than trend continuation zones.
XRP defends between $1.20 and $1.40 within the channel
Price continued to trade within a prolonged descending channel that has guided the structure from the end-of-cycle high. XRP is now defending the $1.40 region, while the lower horizontal support sits near $1.21.
Attempts towards $1.79 and $2.20 have failed, reinforcing the dominance of the channel’s upper boundary. However, the candles are now compressed near the lower trend line, showing reduced downward expansion.
The structure reflects a controlled decline rather than a disorderly liquidation. If buyers continue to defend $1.20, the channel could narrow into a breakout attempt.
However, a decisive close below that region would change the structure and challenge the containment thesis.
Source: TradingView
The MACD now shows a bullish convergence when the blue line crosses above the signal line. The green histograms continue to develop, indicating a weakening of the downward pressure compared to previous waves.
However, the price has not regained the middle channel resistance, limiting confirmation. The indicator reflects an internal improvement, but the structure still limits bullish attempts.
If the histogram expansion persists while the price remains at $1.40, buyers could gradually strengthen control. Still, validation requires sustained closes above descending resistance rather than a temporary cross-reaction.
NVT rises 108% as activity lags
CryptoQuant Data showed the NVT index at 454.51 after increasing by +108.36% in 24 hours. This sharp increase indicated that the market value has expanded relative to transaction performance.
However, elevated levels of NVT often reflect reduced network activity rather than immediate utility expansion.
Price compression near support while rising valuation metrics creates an imbalance. If transactional activity does not recover, the valuation could appear overstated in the short term.
However, capitulation phases often distort NVT readings during transition periods. The context now shows that network slowdown coexists with price stabilization within an increasingly tight range.
Source: CryptoQuant
Binance Traders Aggressively Go Long
Binance top trader positioning showed that 68.91% of accounts had long exposure, while 31.09% remained short.
He Long/short ratio stood at 2.22, reflecting strong directional conviction despite structural weakness. Long, crowded positioning near support introduced asymmetric risk.
If the price rallies decisively, long exposure could accelerate the upside through contraction dynamics. If support fails, the leveraged positioning could quickly unravel.
Current positioning reflects anticipation of a 2022-like bottom, although price must confirm that outlook through sustained higher lows and a structural recovery.
Source: CoinGlass
In summary, XRP is now in a pivotal zone where capitulation, channel compression, elevated NVT, and intense long positioning converge.
The realized losses suggest exhaustion, but the valuation seems exaggerated relative to network activity. The price structure still respects the descending channel, although the compression hints at a near resolution.
If $1.20 to $1.40 continues to hold and MACD expansion persists, XRP could attempt a recovery phase.
However, a failure at support would likely trigger prolonged sell-offs before a lasting reversal forms.
Final summary
- XRP’s largest realized loss spike and channel compression indicate a possible late-stage exhaustion rather than a fresh breakout.
- However, crowded long positions and weak network activity leave the $1.20 to $1.40 zone as decisive support.
