Key control
BTC lost $ 110K and must defend $ 108K to reinforce the upward trend. But will it remain before a probable September rate cut?
On August 29, Bitcoin [BTC] He broke the $ 110K support and retired to $ 108K, which raised his 13% setback from the recent $ 124K peak.
The extended fall followed a broader mass sale, seen in the US Variable Income Markets also, after July inflation data.
Even so, the correction was within the 30% range observed in the last Alcista markets. But Crypto Twitter flooded with “top” calls.
At the same time, Macro analysts remained optimistic, which further complicated BTC’s perspective. So what is still for Bitcoin after the last fall?
Recording the risk in the middle of the period
One of the main calls of the cycle was Ali Martínez, who aforementioned RSI divergence in the price graphics and a price action that reflected the Pico del Mercado 2021.
Not keeping over $ 108.7k could prepare the stage for a greater decrease.
“The upper part can be in Bitcoin, at least temporarily. The upward case would require two key validations: $ 108,700 delays such as support. A golden cross reappears in the MVRV moment indicator.”
Source: x
In fact, Ambcrypto established the terrifying fear of the 2021 cycle (white line) with the current traction.
In fact, if the correlation is still positive, BTC could withdraw and background around $ 70k.
Source: BTC/USDT, TrainingView
Cost base in the focus
The data in the chain also pointed out the risk if BTC broke below $ 108k.
According to Glassnode dataThe level was a short -term cost cost base that could act as support or resistance.
In the past, a break below triggered the anguish of sale and sustained weakness. Naturally, this scenario could drag BTC below $ 100K.
“The story shows that the trade below the cost of the short -term holders (~ $ 108.9K) often precedes the bears of several months. If the support is broken, the statistical band points to a fund in the middle of the period about $ 93k– $ 95k”.
Source: Glassnode
Macro -tailed photographs still intact?
In the macro front, the public’s treasure loans of the public could drain the assets of liquidity and tension risk in the coming weeks, according to analysts.
At the same time, the market consensus for a reduction in the interest rate of 25 BPS in September rates cuts has reached almost 90%.
Swiss block AnalystsHowever, he argued that Fed’s policy rate could affect BTC more than correlation 2021.
In fact, even JP Morgan projected that BTC could reach $ 126K by the end of the year.
Based on the expected Fed features, Alex Kruger saying that the cycle was far from finishing and the race could extend to 2026.
“Even if we had to download from here, I feel extremely sure that this is not the end of the cycle.”
In general, from the historical technicians of the price table and the data in the chain, a short -term relief risk was evident if BTC loses $ 108k. However, the macro landscape was still positive in the medium term.
