Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase after failing to sustain the recent breakout attempt above $90,000. The price is trading back into a broader consolidation that has contained the market since November’s sharp sell-off, while momentum has cooled and on-chain activity shows waning participation.
Therefore, the current structure is best characterized as a range-bound market with a modest bearish tilt, where support levels are being tested rather than a new impulsive uptrend.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily chart, BTC has been rejected from the $95,000 to $97,000 resistance band and the 100-day falling moving average, which converged with the upper boundary of the recent ascending channel. That rejection has pushed the price back towards the $90,000 support area, which coincides with the lower boundary of the channel and the origin of the most recent bullish leg.
The daily RSI has also pulled back from near overbought readings and is returning to neutral territory, consistent with a cooling of bullish momentum. As long as the $88,000 to $90,000 region holds at the close, the broader structure still allows for a constructive high-low scenario; A daily close below this zone would open the way for a deeper pullback towards the $80,000 demand region that marked the base of November.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart
The 4-hour chart shows the price breaking away from the upper boundary of the ascending channel that has guided the advance from around $82,000 and is now about to break the upward channel. The $90,000 zone, previously a pivot and short-term demand area, is now being retested after an intraday spike below.
The RSI in this period has recovered from oversold territory, but remains moderate, corresponding to a corrective bounce rather than renewed impulsive strength. Sustained acceptance above $90,000 would favor a gradual mean reversion towards the $95,000 mark within the channel. However, repeated failures at this level, or a clear break below $90,000, would confirm that sellers remain in control and increase the risk of a retest of the daily lower support around $80,000.
Chain analysis
On-chain data of active addresses indicates a deterioration in underlying network participation. The 30-day EMA of active Bitcoin addresses has been in a persistent downtrend since early 2025 and is currently recording new lows while the price remains elevated near the $90,000 zone.
This negative divergence suggests that recent price resilience has been driven more by existing market participants and derivatives activity than broad new spot demand, a pattern that often aligns with late rallies, choppy ranges, or corrective phases rather than the early stages of a sustained bull run.
Historically, significant cyclical advances have coincided with a clear upward inflection in this activity metric; Until a similar turn appears, conditions continue to argue for cautious positioning, with greater emphasis on capital preservation and responsiveness to support/resistance levels rather than aggressively following trends.
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