This Bitcoin cycle changes everything, warns the real vision analyst

Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts argues that the current Bitcoin market is being driven less by the four -year emission cadence of the asset and much more by a wide tide of global liquidity that only now begins to roll. In a broad interview with “Crypto Kid”, Coutts established a cyclevio framework anchored in politics, bank credit and the dynamics of the balance sheet, while warned that classic impulse warnings and a cooling of the purchase of corporate treasury guarantee respect.

Why this bitcoin cycle is different

“From the first base of principle, global liquidity … drives risk assets,” Coutts said, added that when he returns to Bitcoin against his preferred liquidity compound, built in central bank balances, supply of global money, FX reserves and commercial bank/shadow elements, “you find explanatory power.” The danger, he warned, is excessively a moving relationship. “The markets are not stationary … the correlation itself is a mobile objective, so I would not tie me too much in the lists where you are refining the delay. That period of delay will change all the time.” Even so, he called the connection between liquidity and risk “as good as anything he has seen.”

Related reading

The interview was opened at a dispute point in recent months: short -term divergences between the increase in global liquidity indicators and the price of Bitcoin since ethf spot was launched. UU. Coutts receded the idea that the link has “broken”, arguing that, dimensioning by Bitcoin’s volatility, the current gap is not remarkable. “Within the scope of the volatility of the asset, [there’s] There is nothing to worry about, “he said, while pointing out that his own dollar -sensitive proxy” has gone from floor for a little more “than some popular versions. The correct question, he emphasized, is not a delay of a delay, but ask if the liquidity is increasing in a multimercle vision, and why.

That macro lens leads directly to politics. Coutts expects imminent inflection in the position of the Western Central Bank, with rates that probably lead the tightening of the balance sheet at least. “I think we are very likely to see interest rate cuts at the September meeting,” he said.

“The question is, will the Fed also announce the end of the QT or the reduction of QT?” Behind the pivot, in his opinion, is the “fiscal domain”: the careless deficits of the United States government and the refinancing needs of the monetary authorities to guarantee an absorption without problems of the supply of the treasure. “You can forget what they tell you about stable prices and unemployment. They are there to keep the financial system … and now they are closely linked to the hip of the United States government.”

Crucially, Coutts reminded viewers that most money creation does not come from central banks but from commercial banks that extend credit. “They are responsible for around 85% to 90% of the entire new money supply,” he said. In practice, liquidity can be “supercharged” when central banks also expand their own balances or alter the regulations to encourage banks to accumulate more treasure bonds. He also framed Washington’s most friendly stance towards Crypto and Stablecoins through this prism, calling Dollar Stablecoins a new potential distribution railroad for US debt. The result is a structural backdrop that, in its opinion, favors greater liquidity over time, even if the short -term road is noisy.

The economic cycle

In addition to politics, Coutts placed the economic cycle. He argued that the United States is returning to expansion, with recent ISM readings above 50 cited during the discussion, and that the configuration of “gold ricitos” emerges when an increase in growth overlaps with a higher turn in liquidity. This, he suggested, is the deepest driver behind the family rhythm of four -year -old Bitcoin: “Are we really looking at a liquidity cycle that is dressed as a half -middle cycle?” As the emission decreases on successive halvings, he said, the effect of the supply shock becomes “less significant”, while the liquidity and growth conditions dominate the assignments to the “assets against swallow”. In that race, he added: “Bitcoin is the emerging anti-deibatren asset of the present and the future,” with Ethereum with him in the performance of Horizon Long.

China appears prominently on the Coutts map. He highlighted the increase in the general balance of the Popular Bank of China in the middle of deflation of the debt led by the property and impulse of the government to relive the risk assets. “They are really the only central bank that is going up,” he said, linking that liquidity with the improvement of Chinese actions and growing gold in yuan terms. In previous cycles, he pointed out, the late Bitcoin strength of the latest stage was aligned with Chinese equity peaks, and currently sees a reverse pattern of double head and shoulders “that points to approximately 5,100 at a key point of reference of capital of China. Two cycles are not” statistically significant, “he admitted, but the mechanism is simple:” What is promoting Chinese actions, what is Bitcoin promoting? The same: it is liquidity. “

Related reading

If the structural message is supported, the tape still demands humility. Coutts called a weekly divergence of time frame in Bitcoin’s impulse as a genuine risk signal. “Divergences are warning signs … The trend is losing impulse,” he said, remembering similar configurations before the 2008 crisis and the pandemic shock of 2020. These signals are probabilistic, not destiny, but urged investors to consider “compensatory circumstances” and risk management overlapping instead of discarding them.

Why this Bitcoin cycle is different! (Explained by @Jamie1coutts)

Time brands:
00:00 Introduction
01:05 global liquidity and monetary offer m2
07:19 Fed Fed Balance
14:45 liquidity cycles or cycles in half
19:04 Chinese and Bitcoins Equities
23:25 The bearish divergences
35: 08 … pic.twitter.com/viua5bftyu

– Crypto Kid (@cryptokidcom) September 6, 2025

Bitcoin momentum fades (for now)

Related to the impulse, it marked a cooling in the marginal demand engine that promoted much of 2024: accumulation of Bitcoin of the corporate treasury, directed by Microstrategy and followed by a long tail of imitators. “Bitcoin’s marginal buyer has been Treasury and ETF companies,” he said, but the “purchase intensity” of treasure vehicles “reached its maximum point in the fourth quarter of 2024”. As compressed premiums and windows of capital markets narrow, “they can no longer buy at the same intensity,” which acts as a drag on the sidelines.

The host said the Microstrategy market cousin to the fault had recently been around 1.5%, added that Michael Saylor suggested that the broadcast is much more attractive above approximately 2.0; The broadest point of Coutts was that a proliferation of imitators diluted the strategy and left many smaller names that quote below the intrinsic value: potential acquisition fodder for stronger operators if the discounts persist. The ETF, he said, are a more stable offer, but lack the reflexivity of leverage of capital issuance.

In “Altseason”, Coutts was overwhelming because this time he will not rise with the 2021 helicopter money mania.

“The new buyers are much more demanding. They will not buy the 15 or 16th L1, the 10th L2,” he said, predicting the concentration in a handful of credible platforms and real -world use cases. He hopes that the industry “never says the word ‘Altesazon’ again”, preferring to describe what is coming as a “broader asset class market” “with a much greater dispersion. The “banana zone” previous, added, was a creature of blockages and stimulus controls; The “stimulus speed is different” now, so expectations should also be.

At the time of publication, BTC quoted at $ 112,946.

Outstanding image created with Dall.E, Record of TrainingView.com