During much of this cycle, global liquidity has been one of the most precise indicators to anticipate the action of the price of Bitcoin. The connection between the expansion of the money supply and the growth of the risk assets has been established well, and Bitcoin has followed that script notably closely. However, recently, we have been paying close attention to a couple of other data points that have been statistically even more precise to predict where Bitcoin is directed below. Together, these metrics help paint a clearer image of whether Bitcoin’s recent stagnation represents a short -term pause or the beginning of a longer consolidation phase.
Bitcoin price trends driven by global liquidity changes
The relationship between Global liquidity, particularly the M2 money supply and the price of Bitcoin It is difficult to ignore. When liquidity expands, Bitcoin tends to meet; When contracting, Bitcoin fights.
Measured through this current cycle, the correlation is found in an impressive 88.44%. Add a 70 -day displacement pushes that they correlate even more to 91.23%, which means that liquidity changes often precede Bitcoin movements in just over two months. This framework has proven remarkably precise in the capture of the broad trend, with cycle drops aligned with the global hardening of liquidity and subsequent recoveries that reflect the renewed expansion.
Even so, there has been a notable divergence recently. The liquidity continues to increase, indicating support for the highest prices of Bitcoin, however, Bitcoin itself has stagnated after making new historical maximums. It is worth monitoring this divergence, but does not invalidate the broader relationship. In fact, you can suggest that Bitcoin simply is left behind the liquidity conditions, as it has done in other parts of the cycle.
Significance of Stablecoin Supply Signation of the Bitcoins Market
While global liquidity reflects the broader macro environment, Stablecoin Supply provides a more direct vision of capital ready to enter digital assets. When the USDT, the USDC and other stable are coined in large quantities, this represents the “dry dust” that expects to turn Bitcoin and, finally, more speculative altcoins. Surprisingly, the correlation here is even stronger than M2 with 95.24% without any displacement. Each significant set of liquidity of Stablecoin has preceded or accompanied an increase in the price of Bitcoin.
What makes this metric powerful is its specificity. Unlike global liquidity, which covers the entire financial system, Stablecoin’s growth is crypto-native. It represents the direct potential demand within this market. However, here too, we are seeing a divergence. Stablecoin Supply has expanded aggressively, making new maximums, while Bitcoin has established himself. Historically, such divergences do not last long, since this capital finally seeks returns and flows in risk assets. It remains to be seen if this suggests an imminent advantage or a slower rotation, but the strength of the correlation makes it one of the most important metrics to track in the short and medium term.
Bitcoin Power predictive of high gold correlation delay
At first glance, Bitcoin and Gold do not share consistently strong correlation. Their relationship is choppy, sometimes moving together, other times diving. However, by applying the same delay of 10 weeks, we apply to global liquidity data, a clearer image arises. Throughout this cycle, gold with a 70 -day displacement shows a correlation of 92.42% with Bitcoin, higher than the global M2 itself.
Alignment has been surprising. Both active funds touched almost at the same time, and since then, their main manifestations and consolidations have remained similar trajectories. More recently, Gold has been blocked in a prolonged consolidation phase, and Bitcoin seems to be reflecting this with his own chopped side. If this correlation is maintained, Bitcoin can remain in reach until at least in mid -November, echoing Gold’s stagnant behavior. However, with Gold now he looks technically strong and prepared for new maximums of all time, Bitcoin could soon follow if the “digital gold” narrative is reaffirmed.
The next Bitcoin movement predicted by Key Market Metrics
Taken together, these three metrics, global liquidity, supply of stablcoin and gold, provide a powerful framework to forecast the next Bitcoin movements. Global M2 has remained a reliable macro anchor, especially with a delay of 10 weeks. The stablecoin growth offers the clearest and most direct signal of incoming cryptographic demand, and its accelerating expansion suggests a growing pressure for higher prices. Meanwhile, Gold’s delayed correlation provides a surprising but valuable predictive lens, pointing towards a consolidation period before a possible breakdown later in the coming weeks.
In the short term, this confluence of signals suggests that Bitcoin can continue to cut to the sides, reflecting Gold’s stagnation even when liquidity expands at the bottom. But if the gold breaks the new maximums and the broadcast of Stablcoin continues at its current rhythm, Bitcoin could be preparing for a powerful end of the year rally. For now, patience is key, but the data suggests that underlying conditions are still favorable for Bitcoin’s long -term trajectory.
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Discharge of responsibility: This article is only for informative purposes and financial advice should not be considered. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.