The Bitcoin derivative market entered September with a divided message: merchants are assuming more positions, but the balance of commercial activity is inclined against the strength of prices.
The open interest rose to $ 41.19 billion on September 3, an increase of $ 1.02 billion during the past month. At the same time, Bitcoin’s spot price fell below $ 110,000.
This shows that although it is more leverage at stake, the conviction in the market has not been strong enough to raise the price.
Financing rates confirm even more this. In the markets of perpetual futures, merchants who are long pay a financing rate to those who are short when the demand for leverage is inclined up. On September 3, the daily financing rate was 1.73%, with the average of seven days at 1.21%and the average thirty days at 0.96%.
The financing was positive every day during the past month, which means that the lengths have been constantly paying to maintain the exhibition. This creates an expensive environment for merchants that you bet up, especially when prices do not move in their favor.
Paying higher transport costs without price gains generally forces rapid movement accounts to reduce risk unless something changes the balance.
Commercial activity itself explains why the price has been heavy. A useful indicator is the purchase/sale ratio of Taker, which compares the volume of orders from the contract purchase market instead of selling them. When the relationship is below one, it means that more merchants are pressing the sales button aggressively.
On September 3, the ratio was 0.913, very close to the 30 -day average of 0.965.
The net flow of these market orders was firmly negative: – $ 9.81 billion in the last month, including – $ 1.75 billion in the last week. In other words, merchants who moved the price crossing the differential were sold mainly.
The importance of this is clear in statistics: in the last 90 days, the daily returns were strongly correlated with the flow of net taking (0.76) and the Taker relationship (0.64). In contrast, open interest and financing hardly showed a link to daily returns.
The liquidation data show us where most losses come from. In the last 30 days, $ 17.68 billion were settled in long positions compared to $ 8.33 billion in shorts, which means that 68% of the liquidations fell long. The largest event occurred on August 25, when $ 4.32 billion in lengths were eliminated when Bitcoin fell 3.04% in one day.
The next session saw a 1.52%rebound, a common pattern after important liquidations as the market stabilizes. Another wave hit August 29 with $ 2.40 billion in long liquidations during a 3.72%drop, followed again by a small rebound.
On the short side, on August 11 he brought a $ 1.61 billion wipe as Bitcoin was obtained, followed by another gain the next day. A similar movement occurred on September 1, when $ 670 million in shorts were settled in a daily increase of almost 1% that extended another 1.79% the next session.
These episodes show the imbalance in positioning. The market has been longer, so the recoil causes large long -sidy settlements and rapid rebounds. Short wipes are produced, but they are smaller on scale and less frequent.
While aggressive trade continues from the side of the sale, the demonstrations will be difficult to maintain.
The trade scale also puts this in perspective. In the last 30 days, Gross Taker Flow (the combined value of the purchase and sale orders of the market) reached around $ 490.71 billion. In comparison with this, the open interest of $ 41.19 billion is equal to 8.39% of the recent commercial billing.
This relationship shows that the current position of positions is small in relation to the recent flow, which means that the positions could expand rapidly if the feeling turns. But for now, the imbalance between who owns contracts and who trades more aggressively maintains the pressure on the market.
The image has not changed much in the shortest term. During the last week, Bitcoin fell 0.25%, the open interest added 2.85%and the net electricity flow was negative at $ 1.75 billion.
Financing costs rose even more, reaching 1.73% on the last day. Together, they show more contracts that open, long that pay higher rates to keep them, and merchants still hit the sale side, a combination that maintains the low price.
The execution data (Taker flows and liquidations) are what returns the address. Open interest and financing show how much leverage there is in the system and how expensive it is to maintain, but do not conduct daily movements.
For that, the key signal is who is crossing the spread. A sustained period in which Taker’s relationship rises above one, combined with a positive network of net network, would be the first sign of a change.
Until then, the market will continue to be prone to long -sided settlements and reflexive manifestations instead of lasting profits.
The somewhat unusual publication is being built at $ 9.81 billion of Bitcoin futures and could break in any way that first appeared in Cryptoslate.
