Bitcoin price has recently seen a significant increase in volatility, which has positively impacted its performance as it recovered to $110,000 after opening the week at $107,000.
Despite this, Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain momentum near highest levels of all timeCombined with increasing selling pressure over the past month, it has led some to speculate that the current bull run may have peaked.
Analysts at The Bull Theory, on the other hand, have identified key indicators that suggest a change in Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, with potential for the current bullish trend to extend into 2026.
Anticipating Bitcoin price peak in Q2 2026
in a post On the social media platform This pattern has continued for more than a decade, but recent data indicates a significant change.
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According to their analysis, Bitcoin is moving from a four-year cycle to a five-year cycle, with the next peak anticipated around the second quarter of 2026. This shift is attributed to deeper structural changes within the global economy.
Governments are increasingly rolling over debt for longer periods, economic cycles are extending and waves of liquidity are moving through the financial system at a slower pace.
A key factor pointed out by analysts that influences this delay is that when central banks stop adjusting their policies monetary policiesIt typically takes 6-12 months for liquidity to reach the markets.
Easing signals from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell in the third quarter of 2025, such as signs of an end to balance sheet contraction, are expected to impact markets through early 2026, rather than having an immediate effect.
Furthermore, this delay is evident outside of US-China policy. money supply (M2) has more than doubled that of the US and continues to expand. Historically, when China’s liquidity grows faster than that of the United States, the price of Bitcoin tends to rise a few months later, thus extending the cycle until the first half of 2026.
Japan’s new Prime Minister has also initiated an economic package aimed at combating inflation, which is expected to further contribute to global liquidity.
On-chain data shows institutional buildup
This current cycle is also characterized by institutional accumulation rather than retail hype. Place exchange traded funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries, and funds are gradually buying and holding Bitcoin for extended periods.
Despite current market conditions, retail interest in Bitcoin remains subdued, with Google Trends showing significantly lower search interest compared to 2021 levels.
This indicates that the market is currently in a phase of quiet expansion rather than widespread mania, and retail euphoria, which typically signals the end of market cycles, has yet to materialize.
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On-chain data supports this mid-cycle structure, revealing that institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin. exchange reserves They are near multi-year lows and selling pressure from miners has eased since the Halving event.
While the four-year halving model remains relevant, analysts say it is now being reshaped by macro liquidity dynamics, institutional pace and elongated global cycles. Consequently, the true peak of this bull run may coincide more closely with the second quarter of 2026 than with 2025.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
