Is BTC configured to break below $ 100K?

Bitcoin has fallen below several important support levels after establishing a new historical maximum earlier this month. Given the current market configuration, the short -term perspective points towards a greater probability of a greater disadvantage.

By Shayan

The daily table

Within the daily period, the market has moved constantly, breaking under the main descending channel, the $ 110K support area and the 100 -day mobile average that was aligned with it.

The loss of these critical levels increases the probability of a deeper decrease, with the following downward objectives in the fair value gap of $ 104K or even the 200 -day mobile average near the psychological zone of $ 100K.

Since the RSI also remains below 50, the impulse clearly favors the bears, which makes the disadvantage continue the most likely result.

The 4 -hour table

In the 4 -hour table, the market is in a clear descending trend, forming upper and lowest constant ups and downs within a tight descending channel. The $ 117K and $ 110K supports have broken decisively and have been tested again, pointing out the fair value gap about $ 104k as the following probable objective.

The RSI is sitting below 50, reinforcing the bearish impulse, while the price is close to the golden zone of Fibonacci. The lower limit of this area, at the 78.6%setback level, is aligned with the fair value gap of $ 104K, which makes it a solid objective and a potential rebound area. The way in which the market reacts to this level will be critical to shape the direction of the coming weeks.

Sail analysis

Reservations exchange

This picture illustrates Bitcoin exchange reserves and its price. The purple line shows the reserves that are maintained in all exchanges, while the white line tracks the USD price of Bitcoin. What stands out is the persistent decrease in change reserves since the beginning of 2024, which has continued to the present day.

This means that there are fewer units in exchanges, a sign that investors and institutions are withdrawing their BTC to cold storage instead of keeping them ready for sale. In other words, the circulating supply available for immediate trade is being reduced.

From the perspective of supply and demand, this trend is very significant. As Exchange reserves fall, Bitcoin’s supply that can be sold quickly in the market is squeezed.

If the demand remains stable or increases, this imbalance supports higher long -term prices, as we have seen with Bitcoin pushing new historical maxims. However, short -term price corrections such as the recent setback are still possible when demand weakens or when macroeconomic conditions change.