A series of recent high-profile losses shook market confidence in Ethereum [ETH]…just as the available supply fell. This is a recipe for chaos and could lead to chaotic movements in the price of the token.
Here is the summary.
A $750 million bet went wrong
Trend Research, led by Jack Yi, built one of the largest leveraged positions in Ethereum on the market. This is a $2.6 billion ETH built over a long period of time using loans from Aave. [AAVE]. The trade was a big bet on the upside of ETH, which got bigger thanks to leverage.
That bet has now been completely undone.
Source: X
On-chain data showed that Trend Research sold its entire ETH position this month, raising $1.74 billion to repay outstanding loans. The subsequent result was a realized loss of approximately $750 million.
The fund’s wallets now have just over $10,000 in total assets, including $10,000 USD Coin. [USDC] and negligible exposure to ETH.
But here’s where it gets interesting…
None of this happened in a liquid market.
The exchange-maintained supply of Ethereum has regressed at levels last seen in mid-2016. According to CryptoQuant data, total ETH reserves across all exchanges amount to approximately 16 million ETH. This matches the same spot supply seen during Ethereum’s first full year of operations.
At that time, ETH was barely established. Today it is a multi-million dollar ecosystem.
Source: Cryptoquanto
The contrast with Bitcoin [BTC] It’s interesting. While BTC exchange balances have recovered to near 2019 levels, Ethereum moved in the opposite direction. OTC balances have increased somewhat, but are still small compared to the exchange supply.
If currency liquidity continues to decline (as the big players relax), price discovery could become unstable.
Still, not everyone is walking away. Regardless, Bitmine, backed by Tom Lee, added 20,000 ETH worth $41.98 million on February 8. On the other hand, the Infini exploiter also bought the dip, spending 13.32 million DAI to acquire 6,316 ETH at $2,109. This was before routing funds through Tornado Cash.
ETH weakness during low liquidity
Ethereum was trading at $2,077 at the time of this publication. The token fell from recent highs near $3,300, a drop of approximately 37%. The daily RSI was at 31.22.
The trend strength remained elevated, with the ADX at 50.01. Bearish pressure dominated as –DI (35.77) remained well above +DI (6.78).
Source: TradingView
Sales volume has expanded during the decline, with daily volume approaching 39.7K ETH.
Final thoughts
- Ethereum falls with exchange balances of 16 million ETH.
- Even modest flows could move prices aggressively.
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