bitcoin Accumulator addresses just set a new all-time high by purchasing over 375,000 BTC in 30 days, with over 50,000 BTC added yesterday alone, according to CryptoQuant analysis.
Aggressive buying persists even as overall market demand has slowed, as Bitcoin hovers around $101,000 amid extreme fear and a 37-day government shutdown that is draining $15 billion a week from US GDP.
The monthly average of these long-term holder portfolios has more than doubled in less than two months, going from 130,000 to 262,000 BTC.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales added nearly 30,000 BTC, worth about $3 billion, this week, in stark contrast to the retail panic and ETF outflows that have dominated headlines following BTC’s 20% pullback from its October all-time high of $126,198.
Market signals point to an accumulation zone despite fear
Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio is now around 1.8, its lowest level since April 2025, indicating that the market value is approaching investors’ average cost basis.
Historically, when MVRV falls to the 1.8-2.0 range, it typically coincides with medium-term market lows or early recovery phases.
At the same time, the Stablecoin supply rate has fallen to its lowest point since the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating that there is plenty of dry powder ready to be deployed into BTC.
The Fear & Greed index has also plummeted to “extreme fear”territory, close to 20, since in the last 24 hours more than $1.7 billion in positions were liquidated, mainly overleveraged long positions.
However, foreign exchange reserves continue to trend downward, meaning currencies are withdrawn for self-custody rather than sold, a behavior that historically aligns with stabilization phases.
The 90-day simple moving average of the ratio of realized gains to losses stands at 9.4, marking a slight cooling since July, but still more than double the levels seen during the last two mid-cycle bearish phases.
Notably, on Binance futures, large support groups have formed, with 700 BTC in limit orders sitting at $100,500. Meanwhile, an order for 1,000 BTC at $102,000 was recently filled, meaning institutions are still heavily participating.
Large support groups forming on Binance Futures
1,000 BTC limit order filled at $102,000Current support: 700 BTC at $100,500, holding firm for now pic.twitter.com/xnS6P4NyEd — Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) November 6, 2025
Macroeconomic headwinds reshape ownership ratio
Bitcoin’s ownership structure has transformed dramatically as entity-scale holders increased their holdings by 21.7% to 7.05 million BTC following the ETF’s spot approval in January 2024, while retail holders reduced their balances by approximately 20% to 3.4 million BTC.
Uphold’s head of blockchain research Martin Hiesboeck attributes the shift to whales moving billions into regulated ETFs, attracted by tax advantages and easier access to institutional services, marking the first time that self-custody may be declining in Bitcoin’s history.
Notably, cryptocurrency trader Alex Kruger outlined a cautious outlook for the market, noting that the government shutdown poses near-term obstacles until it is resolved, which is estimated to occur sometime between the end of next week and Thanksgiving. Then wait “BTC +5% or more within 48 hours of settlement.”
The FOMC meeting on December 10 could prove hawkish, with most Fed officials favoring a pause that is currently not priced in, while a possible nomination of a new Fed chair before the end of the year could prove “bullish to very bullish.”
Analysts are divided on whether the bull market is over
Market sentiment has turned overwhelmingly negative following Bitcoin’s first October loss in seven years, with the 3.69% drop drawing nervous comparisons to 2018, when BTC plunged 36.6% in November after a similar drop in October.
Market analyst Ted Pillows warned that crypto markets are going down, stating that “there is a time to be optimistic. Now is not that time.”
FXTM Senior Market Analyst Lukman Otunuga told Cryptonews that it has been a “rough and rocky“Within a few weeks, sellers struck at every opportunity and cumulative ETF outflows surpassed $1 billion since October 29.
While gold and the S&P 500 have posted year-to-date returns of 52% and 15%, respectively, Bitcoin is lagging by 8%, with Otunuga warning that a “solid move below $95,000”could lead to BTC’s first negative year since 2022.
Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin offered a more balanced view, telling Cryptonews that a sustained drop below $100,000 “It’s possible, but certainly not inevitable.”, arguing that the OG Bitcoiners are “simply taking profits after holding them for a long time”Instead of losing confidence.
Puckrin warned that “Many digital asset treasuries will sell off in a downturn, because they have raised funds under specific terms and will need to meet those obligations, regardless of the price of BTC.”, which could amplify sell-offs through leverage.
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