The market is showing the first signs of recovery. However, it is too premature to anticipate a rapid recovery that would recover all the losses we have experienced in recent weeks. XRP is seeing a solid gain in volume and capitalization and Ethereum is still struggling, while SHIB is adding over a trillion in bullish volume. In other words, the picture is mixed.
XRP’s massive spike
Due to exceptionally high transactional activity across the network, XRP recently experienced one of its biggest bullish moves in weeks, surging 13% in a single session. This was a coordinated increase in exchange volume and on-chain payments, rather than a speculative move or oversold bounce, and the price chart shows that the market responded sharply.
The bounce began precisely at the lower edge of XRP’s descending channel, where buyers intervened strongly enough to produce the largest green candle since early November. The move restored short-term momentum and temporarily halted the downtrend by pushing the price directly towards the mid-channel region.
Importantly, this occurred as XRP Ledger payouts skyrocketed into the multi-million dollar range, proving that network usage was not only alive but also accelerating. This is important because price weakness has not been the only problem XRP has faced in the last two months. The lack of confirmation from the network has been the cause.
On-chain profit appeared stagnant, transaction volume fluctuated, and payment counts declined near local minimums. This pattern is finally broken with the most recent surge in activity, which was accompanied by a clear market reaction. To put it another way, the price did not rise on its own. Something genuine happened within the network, causing it to rise.
So what should investors anticipate? First of all, the continuation is not assured, but it is possible. The main 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are still above XRP, which is still stuck in its descending macro channel. They serve as dynamic resistance and usually prevent any reversal in the early stages.
Secondly, if network activity remains high, this measure will not be sustainable. XRP has a good chance of testing the upper limit of the channel, which is between $2.40 and $2.55, if the increase in payment volume continues in the coming days. This would be the first real attempt to break the broader downtrend.
The terrible state of Ethereum
The timing of Ethereum’s recent mini death cross, in which the 50-day EMA crossed below the 100-day EMA, couldn’t be worse for a market that was already struggling to gain momentum. This short-term version, unlike the traditional 50/200 EMA death cross, confirms that the medium-term trend deterioration is accelerating, but does not indicate a macro collapse. This is fully supported by the ETH chart.
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For weeks, the price has been stuck under a series of falling EMAs. Each bounce has been shorter, weaker, and faced immediate selling pressure. Now that the 50 and 100 EMAs have become a bearish alignment, ETH’s ability to sustain an upward move is further diminished. These crossovers basically indicate that momentum has shifted decisively in favor of sellers and that recent price action has been much worse than in previous months.
Even the shorter moving averages failed to recover despite the recent bounce from the $2,800 zone. Rather, ETH ran into resistance. When a death cross sets the tone, the EMAs move from dynamic support to dynamic resistance. The bulls must fight uphill, and every upward move carries the risk of turning into a downward one.
Worse yet, the rounded bottom that Bitcoin and Shiba Inu are starting to exhibit is not being formed by ETH. This is just a sharp decline, weak countertrend momentum and the EMAs that are still falling are directly above. The mini death cross, in this situation, confirms that the downtrend has room to continue and is more than just a signal.
Shiba Inu trying to recover
Just as the token was attempting to reverse its most recent sell-off, Shiba Inu posted one of its busiest trading days in months, adding around a trillion SHIB in volume. That level of volume usually indicates early accumulation by the largest players or maximum capitulation; It doesn’t just happen.
On the chart, the impact is immediately evident: SHIB easily recovered from the $0.0000075-$0.0000080 support zone, which is also where the RSI reached extremely low levels. Since SHIB has not had a significant share in the entire month, the trillion-unit volume increase is significant. Most candles in November were thin, broken and dominated by sellers driving down prices.
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It only takes one strong day to reverse market dynamics when a downtrend becomes so linear and volume stops. That is precisely what happened a moment ago. Although the subsequent bounce does not confirm a complete reversal, it does indicate that the worst of the selling pressure may be easing.
At the lows, volume spikes typically indicate (1) capitulation, which is the last significant wave of panic selling, or (2) accumulation, which is large holders stepping in to absorb weakness. The SHIB candle seems to have tilted towards the latter based on its structure. Instead of allowing prices to plummet, buyers soaked up supply and boosted the market from its lowest points.
