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JPMorgan’s American negotiating table is warning customers that a federally expected federal reserve fees on September 17 could mark a short -term peak for risk assets instead of a new higher leg, a result that would not save the cryptography.
In a note marked by the desk head Andrew Tyler, the bank writes: “We are worried that the September 17 Fed meeting that delivers a 25 -PB cut could become an event of ‘selling the news’ as a recoil of investors to consider the macro data, the Fed reaction function, potentially stretched positioning, an offer of weaker corporate repurchase and a waning participation of the retail inverter.”
The moment matters. The next Fed policies meeting is executed from September 16 to 17, with a statement and a press conference scheduled for Wednesday, September 17. This calendar has only become a catalyst as merchants position both the size of the cut and the guide tone.
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Standard Chartered, pointing out a labor market that has cooled much faster than expected, now expects the Fed to deliver a 50 -step movement. “August market data have raided the way for a basic point rate of ‘thinking’ of ‘thinking’ at the September FOMC meeting, similar to what happened at this time last year,” said the bank, after the non -agricultural payrolls of the United States.
Steve Englander, G10FX Research Global Chief at Standard Chartered, analyzes the need for the Federal Reserve to reduce the rates at 50 basic points at the September meeting and why I would consider that something less is a policy error https://t.co/tjqbgiytimim pic.twitter.com/vp2rvusia5
– Bloomberg TV (@bloombergtv) September 8, 2025
The JPMorgan desktop is not abandoning its position of “lower tactical tactics” of low sentence “, but is urging investors to take insurance to the event. In addition to recommending that capital investors” consider “add or increase the exposure of gold as the cutting expectations are based on the dollar, the Tyler team explained more explicit hedges for a shock of volatility:” VIX or VXX calls long as coverage, as well as defensive parts. “
The macro backdrop has become more complicated. August’s payrolls barely grew and the previous data were reviewed, while the unemployment rate increased to a maximum of almost four years, developments that have hardened the expectations of policy flexibility, but also increased the spectrum of a growth scare.
Meanwhile, Gold has been shouting higher, printing successive records greater than $ 3,600/Oz, as investors have an easier price of politics and a broader political-economic risk. These concurrent signals (work work, strongest bulls) are marked why a rate cut may not automatically match the “risk” for beta.
Crypto faces volatility proof
For cryptography, reading is two sides and highly dependent on the route. On the one hand, the same reproduction driven by works that Gold has played has also supported Bitcoin in recent sessions as merchants are inclined in the easiest idea of money and a softer dollar: Classic tail winds for risk assets and for stories of stories of stuffs.
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On the other hand, a mechanical impulse “Equities Down, Vol Up” around the decision would probably be transmitted to cryptography assets, where the discards of the cross attacks and margin relaxes have historically amplified intradic changes. This tension is visible in the current coverage: Bitcoin has recovered towards the $ 112K area together with the fees of tariffs, however, several market observers warn that a 25 bp of fomines movement, especially if it is framed as a “hawk cut”, they fail to trigger a sustained crypto rally.
In particular, a 50 PB cut of “catch up”, as standard rented projects, would accelerate compression in real yields and weaken the dollar on the sidelines, conditions that have tended to support Bitcoin and liquidity Altcoins when the movement is not seen as a recreational triage.
On the contrary, a smaller or warned cut could accurately deliver the pattern of “selling the news” that JPMorgan warns, with high -content actions and assets of beta as the lowest cryptography marking before reevaluating the sliding route. The story is not Lodestar: the post -cut results have varied from strong manifestations in the middle of the cycle to the reduction when it cuts the omensive recession, but defends the volatility made in the first step.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin quoted at $ 112,739.
Outstanding image created with Dall.E, Record of TrainingView.com
