Reason to trust
Strict editorial policy that focuses on precision, relevance and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reports and publications
Strict editorial policy that focuses on precision, relevance and impartiality
Morbi Pretium Leo et Nisl Aliquam Mollis. Quisque Arcu Lorem, Ultrices Quis Pellentsque Nec, Ulforper Eu hate.
Crypto sits in the heart of Ray Dalio’s new message. On September 3, 2025, the founder of Bridgewater Associates published a point refutation by point to what he called the “erroneous characterizations” of the Financial Times, launching the complete written questions and answers that says he provided to the document. The exchange reaffirms its “great debt cycle” frame and argues that the increase in the loads of the United States debt, the risks for the independence of the Federal Reserve and the growing geopolitical fractures are eroding the role of the dollar as a wealth store, conditions that he says that gold and cryptography increase.
Why Crypto is an “attractive alternative”
Dalio frames the fiscal position of the United States as a late cycle and is reinforced dangerously. “The great excesses that are now projected as a result of the new budget will probably cause a heart attack induced by debt in the relatively close future, I would say three years, about a year,” he wrote. He quantified the squeery in the short term in marked terms, citing “approximately $ 1 billion a year in interest” and “approximately $ 9 billion necessary to pass the debt”, along with approximately “$ 7 billion” in versus expenses “$ 5 billion” in income, which requires “an additional trillion of approximately $ 2 in debt.” He argued that this colide expansion supply with weakened demand when investors question whether bonds “are good wealth adhesives.”
Related reading
The Fulcrum, in Dalio review, is now the Federal Reserve. If the political pressure undermines the independence of the Central Bank, he warned: “We will see an unhealthy decrease in the value of money.” If a “political weakening fed” allows inflation “to get hot”, the consequence would be that “bonds and dollar [go] In value “and, if it is not remedied, it becomes” an ineffective store of wealth and the breakdown of the monetary order as we know it. “This linked with a broader late cycle pattern: the strange headlines” reducing their holdings of the US ties and increasing their golden holdings due to geopolitical concerns “, which he called” classically symptomatic “of the end of the game.
Dalio connected the macro and politicians threads with a more interventionist policy fund, referring to the actions “take control of what companies do” and compare the current phase to the period 1928-1938. He did not set the dynamics in a single administration: “This situation has been happening for a long time under the presidents of both parties,” but said the policies after 2008 and especially after 2020 they accelerated it. “The interaction of these five forces will lead to huge and unimaginable changes in the next 5 years,” he added, listing the debt, internal policy, geopolitics, acts of nature and technology (with the most important AI) as drivers.
Within that late cycle scheme, Dalio placed cryptographic directly in the “hard currency” cube. “Crypto is now an alternative currency that has its limited offer,” he wrote. “If the supply of money in dollars increases and/or the demand of IT falls, that would probably make the cryptography an attractive alternative currency.” Attated the recent “Increases in gold prices and cryptocurrencies” A “reserve unpopped debt situations of monetary governments”, and reiterated its long -standing approach to “wealth adhesives.”
Related reading
On whether Crypto could “significantly replace the dollar,” emphasized the mechanics on the labels, noting that “most of the fiduciary currencies, especially those with great debts, will have problems being effective in wealth and will increase in the value in relation to hard currencies,” said a pattern that was developed in the episodes of 1930-1940 and 1970-1980.
Dalio addressed the risk of crypto stablecoin in that context, separating the reduction of the prices of the assets of systemic fragility: “I do not believe it,” he said when asked if the exposure to the treasure of Stablecoins is a systemic risk, and adds that “a fall in the real purchasing power of the treasure” is the real danger, it fits in the way it is well regulated. ” He rejected the notion that deregulation alone threatens the dollar reservation status: “No,” he said, pointing again to debt dynamics as the main vulnerability.
Dalio’s latest comments fit into an evolution of a decade of his public position on Bitcoin and cryptography instead of a cervical whiplash. At the beginning, gold emphasized as the “upper wealth store” and warned that if Bitcoin was ever successful, governments could restrict him, which makes enthusiasm with the regulatory risk.
By 2020–2021, he began calling Bitcoin “an infernal invention,” acknowledged having a small amount, and increasingly framed as a portfolio diversifier that rhymes with digital gold, while stressing his volatility and policy sensibilities. With his latest comments, Dalio places the entire cryptography market within the monetary hierarchy that he uses to analyze the dynamics of the late cycle.
At the time of publication, the total capitalization of the cryptographic market was $ 3.79 billion.
Outstanding image created with Dall.E, Record of TrainingView.com