Bitcoin has started the fourth quarter of 2025 with a strong rally, increasing more than 10% during the last week, of around $ 109,000 on September 27 to more than $ 122,000 today.
But Bitcoin could increase the maximum of all time if the closure of the United States government continues, according to Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets of Standard Chartered.
Kendrick believes that Bitcoin’s historically positive correlation with the premiums of the United States Treasury term, suggesting that cryptocurrency can benefit from prolonged fiscal uncertainty.
Kendrick said that during prolonged market stress, conditions that often favor digitally scarce assets, Bitcoin has historically shown remarkable resilience. In this case, prolonged stress comes from the extended closure of the United States government.
Standard Chartered’s forecast now addresses Bitcoin at $ 135,000 in the short term, with an end of the year projection of $ 200,000, indicating strong confidence in the potential potential of Token.
Currently, Bitcoin quotes around $ 122,200, just less than its maximum of $ 124,480.
Bitcoin prepared for a rally
The potential for an extended closure of the United States government adds another layer of market uncertainty, often influencing fixed income actions and instruments.
For Bitcoin, these conditions can serve as a catalyst, reinforcing its role as coverage against traditional market volatility.
Bitcoin has changed side in recent months, but the key liquidity indicators suggest that a break can be close. Global M2 Growth, Stablecoin Supply Tends and Gold’s Rally, which Bitcoin has hosted closely with a delay of 40 days, everything points up.
JPMorgan analysts also see Bitcoin as undervalued in relation to gold, estimating a theoretical rise to $ 165,000 if the “degradation trade”, invest in assets of fiduciary currency risk coverage, continues.
With the end of September approximately 5% higher at $ 114,000, historical patterns suggest a strong potential for huge profits in the fourth quarter, backed by the growing retail and institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs and custody solutions.
The data show that in years such as 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024, the positive September closures were followed by manifestations of the fourth quarter that averaged more than 50%.