Key control
BTC Bull Run hangs in the balance, since the $ 100K support acts as a key pivot in the middle of macro -headed whales.
“Bitcoin is still on sale,” says Michael Saylor.
After Bitcoin [BTC] Closed in August 6.5% of its open of $ 115,778, the claim has weight. Meanwhile, Mstr climbed in BTC in three purchases during the month, with an average of $ 116,168 per currency.
However, these positions are now in an unrealized loss of 7.3%. Does this make MSTR’s call a risk game, potentially accompanying merchants and reinforcing the idea that BTC Bull Run has not yet touched completely yet?
Macro Volatility Try Mstr’s Bitcoin bet
September begins with a full economic calendar to move markets.
We have ISM by manufacturing PMI and employment, initial unemployment claims, commercial balance, non -agricultural payrolls and the unemployment rate, all scheduled in the first week of the historically bearish month of BTC.
All eyes, however, are on September 17, where markets have a large extent to facilitate. 86.4% probability of a rate cut, 13.6% without changes and 0% increase, which makes this week’s launch key for BTC Bull Run.
Source: CME Group
In a nutshell, the US macro backdrop. UU. It is key to supporting Mstr’s BTC bet.
The logic is simple: the main IPC of July remained at 2.7%, just below the 2.8%prognosis, while the central ICC increased 0.3%as “expected”, its most acute monthly gain in six months, maintaining control of inflation dynamics.
The result? The FOMC kept the rates without changes. Bitcoin in the background, causing a $ 124K AT in the previous race of BTC Bull. Now the question is whether the current macro conditions can trigger a similar BTC rally, which supports Mstr’s position.
$ 100K support now the pivot point for BTC Bull Run
Historically, September has been BTC’s partial evil.
On average, he publishes -3.5% of Mom’s ROI, the only month in which losses constantly dominate, after the slight monthly performance of -0.14% of June. This seasonal weakness is something that merchants keep in charge of the mind for flows.
In addition to that, the data in the chain show a great increase in the profits of the new BTC whales, marking the largest in more than a month.
In particular, the first remarkable peak was in mid -July, just when the BTC bull ran to $ 123K.
Source: Cryptoquant
In a nutshell, BTC Smart Money continues to reposition tactically.
In fact, the absence of activity of “buying the fear” of the whales goes against the aggressive bet of Bitcoin de Mstr. Merchants seem positioned for a repetition of the typical September download, despite the market price in a rate cut.
Actually, the Fed has few incentives to reduce in the midst of posariff economic risks, which makes a rates cut unlikely.
Therefore, all signs point bassists, with $ 100K now look like a key support and a potential pivot zone for the execution of BTC Bull.
