In summary
- Bitcoin and other important cryptocurrencies published profits on Tuesday morning, driven by the expectations of a rate cut.
- Experts attributed even more the recent increase to a weakening of the US dollar, the acquisition of 1,009 BTC of Metaplanet and the increase of open interest.
- Analysts pointed out that a cutting decision after the Fed comment rate could trigger volatility peaks.
Crypto’s bounce this week indicates an attempt to pivot the sustained bearish trend since mid -August, with experts who attribute this return to improve macroeconomic conditions and metric conditions in the chain.
Among the 10 main cryptocurrencies for market capitalization, Bitcoin, XRP and Solana registered profits of at least 2% each according to Coingcko data, which leads BTC above $ 111,000 for the first time since last Friday.
While Bitcoin has only increased slightly in the week, by 1% from this letter, Solana has published a weekly gain of more than 7%, by Coingecko. Other upper currencies such as Ethereum, Dogecoin and BNB remain slightly described in the day.
Bitget Ryan Lee chief analyst said Decipher that the depreciation of the US dollar has “reinforced the feeling of risk and encouraged capital flows in assets such as cryptocurrencies.”
He added that macroeconomic factors are “amplifying this trend, with the markets increasingly prices in the federal reserve tote that are expected in September 2025, which reduces the opportunity cost of having non -winning assets, such as cryptocurrencies.”
Lee pointed out to the decrease in Bitcoin exchange reserves, sliding the domain of BTC and the soat era that accumulate Ethereum, reinforcing the aforementioned bullish feeling.
“The volume of Net Taker has become positive, suggesting that merchants are now leaning towards a short -term rise,” Darkfost said, a verified analyst Cryptoquant’s pseudonym, said Decipher.
The night increase in open interest for Bitcoin, with a change of 7 days in open interest that crosses a negative threshold, indicates a position settlement. Historically, this has been followed by positive reactions, according to Darkfost.
The increase in open interest is the result of “positioning promoted by conviction instead of speculative excess,” said Derek Lim, head of research in Caladán. Decipher. The acquisition of Metaplanet of 1,009 BTC on Monday exemplifies this conviction backed by data.
The overwhelming expectation of a reduction of federal reserve rates on September 17 further marks the market condemnation. The CME Fedwatch tool shows a 91.8% probability of a 25 -base cutting.
However, Lim provided a crucial warning that this feeling reflects “prices of future reagents” instead of a true understanding of the complex decision making process of the Fed.
He emphasizes that the next non -agricultural payroll report, scheduled for this Friday, will be the true proof of this optimistic perspective.
According to Lim, a bullish scenario would arise if the job report is within the 90K-20K range, since this would validate a cooling labor market and almost guarantee a tariff cut, potentially pushing Bitcoin higher.
A challenging scenario would arise if the job report exceeds 150k or demonstrates “salary pressures driven by the rate.” Such development could lead to “delay cuts or deliver aggressive messages”, even if a rate cut is produced.
Under this alternative perspective, Bitcoin is likely to visit the range of $ 104,000- $ 106,000, which can lead to significant settlements.
Lim pointed out that the market is too confident and that the Fed can deliver an Awkish message even while reducing rates, which could create volatility for positions awaiting a more misleading policy pivot.
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