Bitcoin price action sits near a level where historically weaker holders exit and stronger hands begin to accumulate.
Bitcoin has remained range-bound between $60,000 and $70,000 as choppy trading continued to reflect fears of a further downward move. Recent data highlights the creation of risks near price bands carried out by short-term holders.
Historically, these areas have witnessed the beginning of accumulation and emerging opportunities for global market participants.
High risk, high opportunity area
According to Alphractal, Bitcoin is currently trading within a narrow range defined by the short-term holder’s realized price, and its price action is trapped between key support and resistance levels. In recent weeks, BTC has closely respected the -1σ and -1.5σ deviation bands.
Previous cases reveal that when the crypto asset falls below the lower blue deviation band, the market typically sees one of two outcomes. Either the formation of a local bottom or a deeper capitulation phase, followed by accumulation. These deviation bands have consistently acted as natural support and resistance throughout multiple market cycles. To make matters worse, the -1.5σ level has repeatedly represented periods of maximum stress, where selling pressure from short-term holders intensifies and long-term participants begin to accumulate.
Against this backdrop of high stress for short-term holders, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson pointed to a longer-term metric that may indicate the market is not yet at a historic turning point. The net unrealized gains/losses (NUPL) metric for long-term holders, which tracks whether the most resilient investors are banking on unrealized gains or losses, currently stands at 0.36, meaning long-term holders are still making profits despite the recent volatility.
Looking at past cycles, Wedson found that the clearest late signal of a bear market tends to emerge only when this metric turns negative, a condition associated with extreme pessimism and seller exhaustion. These phases have marked the end of bear markets, rather than the beginning of a new bull cycle.
Miners reduce currency exposure
As Bitcoin trades near crucial stress levels, more on-chain data shows miners adjusting their positioning amid continued market pressure. Data shared by CryptoQuant shows a significant change in miner behavior, as more than 36,000 Bitcoin have been withdrawn from exchanges since the beginning of February.
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The pace of withdrawals has accelerated compared to previous months, which points to changes in holding strategies or liquidity management. Of this total, over 12,000 BTC was withdrawn from Binance, while over 24,000 BTC was spread across other exchanges, indicating that this is not an isolated activity. These moves are typically associated with transfers to long-term storage, as miners move assets from exchanges to cold wallets and reduce immediate supply on the sell side.
Daily withdrawals peaked at over 6,000 BTC, the highest level since November, and significantly surpassed January levels. This means that miners may be repositioning themselves in the context of the current market uncertainty.
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