Bitcoin red month; Why September still shapes the cryptographic cycle

The red month of Bitcoin is almost here, already measure that we approach another September, is it inevitable that prices decrease? Let’s take a look at some of the reasons why the ninth month of the year is historically bad for Bitcoin.

Why September is historically the red month of Bitcoin

Since 2013, September has proven to be a challenging month for Bitcoin, with losses in eight of the last 11 years. That could be due to the fact that retail investors generally obtain profits after summer manifestations or even cryptography to cover their autumn expenses, such as registration and tax planning.

The red month of Bitcoin can also be a kind of self -fulfilling prophecy, since merchants expect red candles and act more defensively, further reducing the market. The perspective here is important, since most September setbacks have been modest.

The month generally marks a local background, after which Bitcoin is often recovered strongly in ‘Uptober’, since the fourth quarter historically brings recovery and even in mass manifestations. In October 2020, for example, Bitcoin increased from around $ 10,800 at the beginning of the month to more than $ 13,800 at the end, marking a gain of more than 27%.

August Summary: Maximum of all time and whale sightings

August 2025 was dramatic for any measure. Bitcoin increased to a historical maximum of $ 124,533 on August 14, only to fall 11% to minimums around $ 110,000 only two weeks later.

Almost $ 200 billion in market value evaporated, with a single event that triggers the fall: a previously inactive whale that sold 24,000 BTC, pushing the spot price below $ 109,000 and causing the largest liquidation waterfall of the year.

Almost $ 900 million were eliminated in derived positions, 90% was upward, with $ 150 million in BTC and $ 320 million in ETH Liquidated ETH. Ethereum showed a relative force, remaining above its 100 -day mobile average even with an 8%decrease.

Recent weakness was not only technicians or feelings. The spot and derivative market orders books remained thin, so any important sale (such as whale landfill) was sufficient to amplify prices volatility.

Meanwhile, the data in the chain at the end of August showed warm activity and reduced inputs, further weakening supply support.

Macroeconomic uncertainty also remains a wind against. With the policy movements of the United States Federal Reserve in the approach, merchants have a price both at risk of erratic movements and renewed optimism potential if macro signals, such as a rate cut, become favorable.

Preparation for September: Scenarios and Signs

Crypto Trader Cas Abbé described three possible scenarios for Bitcoin as September is approaching. In its main “rank and repair” scenario (40%probability), Bitcoin is expected to change side between $ 110K and $ 120K for most of the month, as excess leverage is reduced and institutional investors gradually accumulate. Such consolidation would create a healthier base for a possible rally in the fourth quarter.

In the case of “second download” (35%probability), if Bitcoin falls below $ 110K, there could be a greater wave of liquidations, leading the price to high $ 100 km and erase left -handed positions left over. Historically, this type of corrections often precede a strong background.

On the contrary, the “rapid recovery” scenario (25%probability) provides that institutions that buy aggressively allow BTC to quickly claim the $ 117K range – $ 118K and causing an earlier return of a bullish feeling.

Throughout September, Abbé suggests that merchants closely monitor several chain and macro signals; In particular, the activity of the options prior to the expiration of September 27 could offer valuable information about positioning and feeling.

It remains to be seen if the red month of Bitcoin will become green this year, but with thin liquidity, increased volatility and institutional buyers waiting in the wings, September can offer risks and opportunities this year.