The president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, caught the attention to the prediction markets amid the growing commitment that Bitcoin’s holdings in the country will reach $ 1 billion at the end of the year.
Bukele took X on Wednesday to tweet on the Kalshi prediction market, which shows a growing betting activity in Bitcoin (BTC) holdings of El Salvador reaching $ 1 billion at the end of 2025.
“I could make the most fun right now,” Bukele sayingas the chances of El Salvador arriving at a Bitcoin milestone of $ 1 billion before November leap From 20% to 38% in Kalshi.
Shortly after Bukele’s publication, the Polymerce rival platform list A similar bet, where the probabilities of a Bitcoin milestone of $ 1 billion in December 2025 stood at 43%.
Kalshi tracking probabilities since mid -August
Kalshi’s prediction market on Bitcoin’s holdings of $ 1 billion of El Salvador has been active since mid -August, with the bet “before December 2025” which remains about 24% and “before November 2025” that was around 18% to recent days.
After the peak to 38%, the bet “before November 2025” fell to 27%, while the bet “before December 2025” was around 35%.
While Kalshi had been tracking the chances that Bitcoin’s holdings from El Salvador reached $ 1 billion for several days, the Polymarket rival platform only introduced a similar market after Bukele’s tweet.
Related: Bitcoin Banks that arrive at El Salvador – Government Regulator
“New Polymket: El Salvador will have $ 1 billion of bitcoin …?” The platform aware In X only hours after Bukele highlighted the Kalshi market on Thursday.
Coinlegraph approached Kalshi and Polymeket for comments on market listing policies, but had not received any response for the time of publication.
Controversy around Bitcoin’s holdings in El Salvador
While Kalshi and Polymarket are ready to capitalize on the increase in optimism around Bitcoin’s holdings in El Salvador, none of the platforms created betting markets with respect to prior controversy.
In July, the president of the Central Bank of El Salvador, Douglas Pablo Rodríguez Fuentes, and the Minister of Finance, Jerson Rogelio Posada Molina, said that the Savior had stopped buying Bitcoin after signing the loan agreement of $ 1.4 billion with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2024.
Related: Salvadoran president, Nayib Bukele, can now apply for elections indefinitely
Although these statements are part of the official communication of El Salvador with the IMF, Bukele and the El Salvador Bitcoin office continued to tweet about new purchases of Bitcoin, and the holdings are currently currently reported at 6,282 Bitcoin ($ 709 million).
From now on, neither Juan Carlos Reyes, president of the National Commission of Digital Assets of El Salvador, nor any other contacted party responded to the Cointelegraph application in July asking them to clarify the controversy.
The news occurred in the midst of prediction markets winning impulse, with former Polymarket and Kalshi Toni Gemayel executive advertisement An increase of $ 15 million in investors such as Coinbase Ventures for the prediction market platform compensation company.
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