Bitcoin broke a three -year streak of summer average returns, but now he enters his worst month, known as “September Red”.
September has the dreaded nickname because he has delivered the lowest monthly returns for Bitcoin (BTC), averaging –3.77% in 12 years since 2013. It is also the month of China imposed a couple of large prohibitions of cryptographic in 2017 and 2021.
This record is weighed for six consecutive losses from 2017 to 2022. The tables became 2023, and Bitcoin has published two consecutive September profits, including its best September in 2024, when it closed the month with 7.29%.
The reputation comes from shares, where September is also the weakest month for the S&P 500. It is when investors return from summer with a more risk posture and re -quilibros funds in the fourth quarter.
The gloom often does not last. September losses have historically given way to October, or “uptober”, a month that has delivered profits in six consecutive years and only two losses in Bitcoin’s history, according to Coinglass.
Red September regulatory in Bitcoin
In the first years of Bitcoin, its price was scattered and not widely tracked. The first asset violated $ 1,000 in 2013, attracted the attention of the main media and caused better file records. That same year he saw the launch of the native aggregator of the CoinmarketCap industry, followed by Coingcko in 2014.
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Between 2013 and 2016, the September yield of Bitcoin was divided evenly, with two positive and two negative months. The pattern broke in 2017 during the rise of the initial currency offer (ICO), when Bitcoin crossed $ 1,000 per second time and spent $ 2,000 for the first. The speculative frenzy led the Central Bank of China to ban the ICO on September 4, causing the first of the consecutive network. South Korea continued with his own prohibition of ICO on September 29, while regulators in other places issued warnings.
The sequelae marked the beginning of what was known as the first cryptographic winter, since innumerable tokens ico crashed. By September 2018, Bitcoin had decreased from its December 2017 historical maximum about $ 20,000 to less than $ 7,000. A media report on September 5 said that Goldman Sachs was abandoning his cryptographic desktop plans. The bank then ruled out the story as “false news.”
September 2019 added another blow with the long -awaited launch of Bitcoin Futures de Bakkt. Despite the high expectations of institutional entries, commercial volumes were weak, and the debut was qualified as a failure. Three days later, Bitcoin submerged about $ 10,000 to less than $ 8,000. A Binance research report published on September 30, 2019 cited Bakkt’s “disappointing start” as a factor that contributes to the decrease in Bitcoin’s prices.
The next three September reflected the era of pandemic and its consequences. While COVID-19 initially increased Bitcoin’s narrative as inflation coverage, September 2020 saw that capital revolved to Ethher (eth) during the “Summer Defi”.
In September 2021, China attacked again with the prohibition of mining and cryptography trade. The following year, the collapse of Terra/Luna in May left deep scars, and the increase in the percentage rate of September 0.75, its fifth place in a year of seven walks, added salt to Bitcoin’s injury.
Bitcoin “Red September” streak
After six consecutive losses in September, Bitcoin broke the streak in 2023. A fundamental catalyst occurred on August 29 when a Federal Court of Appeals ruled that the rejection of the United States Commission of Securities and Securities and Values capricious “.
The decision forced regulators to visit the application again and revived the confidence that a Spot Bitcoin ETF of the United States was inevitable. The ruling took the impulse to September, helping Bitcoin rise approximately 4% in the month. The United States Federal Reserve also helped feel stable rates after 11 walks in 12 meetings from March 2022.
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The ETF Spot Bitcoin were approved and listed in the US at the beginning of 2024. In the middle of the year, the financial instruments routinely published billions of dollars in daily negotiation volume. The macro conditions added fuel since the Fed granted a rate cut on September 18, 2024, which was the first since March 2020.
Then came the launch of World Liberty Financial on September 16, 2024, which quickly intertwined in US electoral narratives. Framed as a cryptographic company aligned by Donald Trump, he debuted while in the midst of what would become a successful presidential campaign, indicating a political hug of cryptocurrencies at the highest level.
Another rate cut could help Bitcoin break the curse “Red September”
Bitcoin is directed to September 2025 with the weight of history. The month has long been an obstacle, marked by regulatory clashes and adjustment cycles that mark the feeling of investors.
This year, the backdrop looks stronger than in low cycles. Bitcoin Spot ETFs continue to publish billions in turnover and have become an entrance door for institutional capital. Throughout 2025, companies with difficulties have resorted to Bitcoin’s treasure strategies in an attempt to turn their misfortunes.
The cryptographic industry also brings new speculation from China, with rumors that the authorities could allow Stablocoins linked to the Yuan in the high seas. Until now, officials have not confirmed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyd4uyb9Axo
Jerome Powell delivers double comments in his final Jackson Hole speech. Source: Associated Press
The attention of investors is directly in the US, where the Fed seems to have turned. At the end of August, the president of the FED, Jerome Powell, delivered his final speech in Jackson Hole before his mandate ends in May 2026. The symposium is one of the most observed events in the global economy, since it often uses the chairs fed to insinuate the address of politics.
In 2022, Powell warned about “pain” for homes and companies as the Fed was pressed with aggressive rate increases. This year, he gave a deceptive tone, saying that the “changing balance of risks” can justify adjusting the Fed policy position.
Another reduction is expected to be expected at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for September 16 to 17.
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