A Bitcoin (BTC) bottom signal that appeared in 2023, before a 130% rally in 2024, reappeared this week, raising the possibility that the price is approaching another bullish turning point.
At the same time, broader data on liquidity, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows and macroeconomic data change the environment from two years ago, suggesting that the path forward may not mirror that of the previous cycle.
BTC Bottom Trigger Appears Without Strong Follow-Through
Data aggregator Swissblock noted that Bitcoin has now logged 25 consecutive days in its “extremely high risk” zone, the longest stretch on record and above the 23-day peak seen in 2023. Historically, a prolonged stay in this zone has been aligned with late-stage drawdowns or a bottom signal.
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe also pointed out BTC versus supply on the profit and loss chart, which shows the price interacting with levels that previously marked bottom phases. In 2023, the move from high risk to low risk coincided with the start of a powerful bullish expansion.
Trader positioning is not in sync with an uptrend. RugaResearch noted that 30-day apparent demand continues to fluctuate between positive and negative. While selling pressure has faded, sustained buying demand has not maintained its dominance.
Related: Bitcoin at $30,000? Analysts debate when and at what price BTC will bottom
Bitcoin’s Deeper Drawdowns Take Time
Macroeconomic newsletter Ecoinometrics highlighted that a BTC crash of this magnitude is rarely resolved quickly. Excluding the 2020 COVID rebound, which was supported by aggressive monetary policy intervention, recoveries from 50% reductions unfolded over an extended period.
ETF flow data reinforces the cautious tone. Since August, cumulative inflows into gold ETFs have exceeded spot flows into Bitcoin ETFs for 90 consecutive days. Over the same period, Bitcoin funds have recorded negative flows on a 90-day average, currently standing at –$2.06 billion.
Inflation trends added more context. Ecoinometrics noted that overall personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is close to 2.9% year-on-year, with core spending close to 3.0% and basic services above 3.4%. The Federal Reserve is targeting PCE and the recent trend has not shown a clear shift downwards. Without easing expectations, liquidity expansion appears limited.
Price levels frame the debate. Willy Woo, managing partner at CMCC Crest, said any near-term relief rally to $70,000 to $80,000 will likely be met with another round of selling pressure as “the broader regime is strongly bearish and both spot and forward liquidity are deteriorating.”
Woo said that the $45,000 level aligns with the previous bear market. Below that, $30,000 and $16,000 mark historical support, which is tied to the preservation of the long-term trend.
Related: Crypto Taxes Updated, BTC Stuck Below $70,000 – Month on Charts
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