Bitcoin is trading at weekly RSI levels that have historically been seen near bear market lows, indicating that selling pressure may be easing. While confirmation is needed, the market is in a zone that often marks a late-stage capitulation. The key question: Was the recent decline the end result or is there still one last shakeout ahead?
RSI compression signals downward exhaustion
According to crypto analyst Batman, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has fallen back into the same territory that historically marked previous bear market lows. This momentum zone has appeared repeatedly during the recent capitulation phases, making it a critical sign that the market could be approaching another major inflection point.
However, Batman makes it clear that this does not confirm that bottom has already been reached, and emphasizes the importance of waiting for proper confirmation before declaring a reversal. Still, he notes that when the RSI compresses to these levels on the weekly period, Bitcoin has generally been much closer to a structural low than the beginning of a new crash.
Reflecting on the 2022 bearish cycle, Batman notes that once the RSI entered this extreme zone, the price managed to record a final lower low. However, that move occurred very close to the final low, indicating that most of the downside had already developed by the time momentum reached such depressed readings.
The analyst concludes that probabilities matter more than precision. From their perspective, when Bitcoin trades at these weekly RSI levels, it historically represents an area where strategic accumulation becomes increasingly attractive.
Bitcoin’s Six Consecutive Weekly Low Highs: A Rare Sign
In a recent weekly analysis of Bitcoin, SuperBro noted that BTC has now posted six consecutive weekly highs, a rare structural pattern. The last time this occurred was during the COVID crisis in 2020, a period marked by extreme volatility and eventual macroeconomic reversal.
Currently, the price is falling below the 200-week EMA and the point of volume control (POC), although the weekly candle has not closed yet. A POC recovery before the close could trigger a strong bullish reaction and signal that the breakout attempt is losing steam.
Just below the current levels is the rising 200-week SMA, adding another layer of support for a higher time frame. The RSI remains at extreme levels, suggesting that the momentum is already very exhausted. When you combine oversold conditions with six consecutive lower highs pushing toward major support, the argument for a sustained continuation lower becomes less compelling.
Beyond the short-term structure, the broader megaphone formation remains intact. If that macro pattern ultimately plays out, its higher trajectory projects potential targets above $300,000, keeping the long-term expansion thesis firmly on the table despite the current compression.
