Bitcoin demand conditions have shown improvement recently; However, they are still weak despite bitcoin’s latest rally.
Over the past week, bitcoin (BTC) has rallied and the price has approached certain crucial thresholds. Despite this rebound in the asset’s value, analysts at cryptocurrency research firm CryptoQuant believe that the market, led by BTC, has not escaped the clutches of the bears.
In a weekly report from CryptoQuant, market experts noted that BTC demand conditions have improved recently. However, they are still weak and have not changed significantly. This corroborates the claim that the market is still in a bearish phase despite bitcoin’s latest rally.
Bitcoin Sees Bear Market Rally
Since November 21, 2025, BTC has risen approximately 20% to its current levels. The rally follows a 19% drop that confirmed the start of a bear market as BTC fell below its 365-day moving average (MA). The rise brought the leading cryptocurrency close to its 365-day MA, currently situated at $101,000.
Historically, the 365-day MA has acted as a regime boundary and previous bear cycles have shown repeated rejections near that level before a further move lower. BTC recorded a similar pattern in the 2022 bear cycle, and this time is no different.
The bitcoin price rally comes amid slightly improved but weak demand conditions. In fact, spot demand is still contracting. US spot indicators such as Coinbase price premium and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) briefly turned positive. Coinbase’s premium briefly rose from deeply negative territory for the second time since mid-December 2025.
Bitcoin demand remains weak
There has not yet been any extraordinary activity in the ETF space. These products simply stopped net sales during the rally, after offloading up to 54,000 BTC over a 30-day period in November 2025. Bitcoin spot ETFs have not indicated a strong return in US demand nor have they shown sustained accumulation.
Furthermore, apparent demand metrics reveal that Bitcoin spot demand has contracted by 67,000 BTC in the last 30 days and has been in negative territory since November 28, 2025. Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US have purchased just 3,800 BTC so far this year, compared to 3,600 at the same time last year, levels below the thresholds associated with bull market recoveries.
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Meanwhile, analysts say BTC may face increased selling pressure in the coming weeks as exchange flows have started to rise after the recent rally. Bitcoin transfers to exchanges have skyrocketed to a seven-day average of 39,000 BTC. Increasing flows to exchanges are historically associated with increasing sales activity, so there may be more trouble ahead for BTC.
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