In summary
- ARK Invest forecasts that Bitcoin could account for about 70% of a projected $28 trillion digital asset market by 2030, driven by ETF adoption and corporate treasuries.
- The value of DeFi shifts from networks to applications, as fee generation protocols scale faster and begin to rival fintech platforms in revenue efficiency and assets under management.
- Tokenized markets are becoming commonplace and ARK projects up to $11 trillion in real-world tokenized assets by 2030.
Bitcoin, decentralized financial applications and real-world tokenized assets are poised to dominate cryptocurrency development in 2026, and experts say regulatory clarity will determine whether innovation translates into widespread adoption.
ARK Invest’s latest research report, called “Big ideas 2026,” predicts that the digital asset market could skyrocket to $28 trillion by 2030, with Bitcoin dominating 70% of that market at roughly $16 trillion.
Projections from Cathie Wood’s investment management firm are “reasonable,” said Joni Pirovich, founder and CEO of Crystal aOS. Decipher.
“Crypto-native financial platforms are scaling, but they are not seeking to become global centralized institutions: they are seeking global acceptance and navigating fragmented compliance requirements,” he said.
The report highlights the maturation of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class, as ETFs and US public companies now hold 12% of the total supply, up from 8.7% at the beginning of 2025.
The projections show how Bitcoin, DeFi and tokenized assets are increasingly being treated as functional components of global capital markets.
Sudhakar Lakshmanaraja, founder of blockchain educational platform Digital South Trust, said Decipher that “the future of cryptocurrencies in 2026 will be decided more by regulation than innovation.”
“Bitcoin can dominate as an asset, but DeFi and tokenized markets cannot scale until governments establish custody, compliance and investor protection standards,” he added.
Tokenized assets it tripled to $19 billion in 2025 and could reach $11 trillion in 2030 (about 1.38% of global financial assets), backed by BlackRock’s $1.7 billion BUIDL fund (20% of tokenized Treasuries) and tokenized gold from Tether and Paxos, according to the report.
Decentralized financial applicationsMeanwhile, it generated a record $3.8 billion in revenue in 2025, and in January alone accounted for a fifth of the total, as ultra-efficient platforms like Hyperliquid surpassed $800 million in annual revenue with fewer than 15 employees, and 70 protocols now exceed $1 million in monthly recurring revenue, according to the report.
“In 2026, the convergence of mature regulatory frameworks and interoperable institutional networks will enable sovereign digital securities to redefine global capital formation,” said Wook Lee, Founder and CEO of EDENA Capital Partners. Decipherhighlighting the transformation underway.
Tokenized markets will be the “main driver of real-world economic activity across the digital asset ecosystem,” Lee added.
The report also noted declining Bitcoin volatility, with average declines from all-time highs reaching their shallowest levels across all time horizons measured in 2025, and Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns surpassing Ethereum and solarium for most of the year.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading just below $90,000, up 0.5% over the past 24 hours but down more than 6% on the week, according to CoinGecko. data.
The cryptocurrency rebounded above the $90,000 level on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said he would not impose tariffs on European countries following a meeting with the NATO secretary general over the fate of Greenland, although prices have since retreated amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
ARK’s report also examined AI infrastructure, autonomous vehicles, robotics, and distributed energy along with its crypto analysis.
On the Myriad prediction market, users are currently leaning towards cryptocurrenciesnot AI, as the bubble most likely to burst first, with traders assigning it a probability of almost 55%.
(Disclaimer: Myriad is owned by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan)
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