Not all market cycles are the same, but there are patterns worth noting.
Based on this theory, analyst Michael van de Poppe has projected a repeat of the pre-COVID-style shakeup among large-cap assets. Basically, these cycles tend to be defined by rotating flows towards alternative assets.
To put this in context, the projection is based on the 2019 cycle, when the ETH/BTC ratio bottomed at 0.02, only to launch a rally of over 300% in early Q4 2021.
Naturally, the question is: can Ethereum [ETH] get a repeat?
Source: TradingView (ETH/BTC)
If we analyze the technical aspects, the ratio is recovering from the same floor of 0.02.
As the graph shows, since the second quarter of 2025, the ratio has experienced vertical expansion, increasing by 75%. This closely aligns with Ethereum’s 80% rally to $3.4K, compared to Bitcoin. [BTC] 15% profit during the same period.
In summary, ETH’s weakness in 2025 against BTC was due to a 38% decline in the ETH/BTC ratio during the first quarter, before recovering. But does this point to a confirmed bottom? If so, we could be at the beginning of a leak.
Ethereum L1s take center stage
Sure, expecting a pre-COVID-style rebound might be a bit of a stretch.
The logic is simple: since the COVID-19 surge, the market has evolved significantly, placing BTC at the center of both spot and speculative capital flows, and its market capitalization reached a record $2.5 trillion at the beginning of Q4 2025.
That said, Ethereum appears to be finding its way, showing strength in key metrics. For example, Ondo Finance now accounts for 11% of ETH’s RWA TVL, while Ethereum’s TPS recently hit a record high of 58k.
Source: Growthpie.com
Taken together, this strength shows that the 2019-style streak has not faded.
Instead, Ethereum’s on-chain performance is clearly catching up to Bitcoin’s (BTC.D) dominance. For example, ETH market share increased by over 60% from the low of 8% in Q2 2025, further reinforcing this thesis.
The key difference? ETH’s dominance is driven more fundamentally.
In the current macroeconomic context, this gives Ethereum a clear advantage over Bitcoin. As regulations take shape, L1s are positioned to lead the momentum, with ETH/BTC’s 75% bounce serving as an early sign of this trend.
Final thoughts
- Ethereum’s market share has recovered dramatically, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising 75% from the Q2 2025 low, supported by strong developer activity.
- L1s are positioned to ride market momentum, and ETH’s dominance indicates a potential pre-COVID style breakout as regulations become clearer.
