Bitcoin is still stuck in a corrective phase, but the structure remains controlled rather than impulsively bearish. Price is reacting cleanly to higher term levels, while volatility has compressed, which usually precedes expansion.
The key point here is that this is not distribution yet; It is digestion. How BTC behaves around the current resistance will define whether this move is just another lower high or the start of a broader continuation.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily chart, the asset is trading below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are within a clear resistance zone. This area has already acted as a supply switch several times, so the rejection here is technically valid.
However, the daily structure still holds higher lows from the November low, meaning sellers have not regained full control. As long as the price stays above the highest and lowest base and does not miss the demand zone below, this will remain a corrective range rather than a trend reversal.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart
The 4-hour chart shows a rising wedge/rising corrective structure pushing towards resistance. The price has just marked the local supply and stagnated, while the RSI also entered overbought territory and is retreating.
The market is balanced here: a strong break above the $95,000 horizontal resistance level and the upper boundary of the wedge pattern would open space towards the next daily supply zone just above $100,000. On the other hand, a rejection will cause the price to swing back into the pattern and potentially into the lower range support. Therefore, BTC’s medium-term price action largely depends on its reaction to the current level.
Sentiment analysis
Futures data shows the average order size belonging primarily to retail traders compared to last year, indicating that the largest players are mostly inactive. Retail participation has met with near resistance, increasing the risk of counterfeits in the short term. This combination usually leads to choppy price action rather than an immediate continuation.
The overall sentiment is cautiously bullish, but near highs driven by retail trading. This means that BTC likely needs a clean breakout with large player volume or a bearish reset to shake weak hands before the next directional move occurs.
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