In summary
- Bitcoin extended its bounce in January, but positioning in perpetual futures remained stable, leaving analysts cautious about the strength of the move.
- Futures and spot signals point to limited conviction, with open interest well below previous peaks, a skewed order book, and weak US spot demand.
- Options markets have become more constructive, although analysts say the recent bullish interest reflects volatility trading and short covering rather than new directional bets.
Bitcoin’s rise since early 2026 has taken it near $95,000, its highest level in six weeks. Although the overall cryptocurrency market outlook is improving, a closer look at major cryptocurrencies shows a flat positioning of perpetual contracts, leaving analysts cautiously optimistic.
The leading cryptocurrency hit a high of $94,420 on Monday, up 7.7% from the opening price of $87,611 so far this year, according to CoinGecko data.
Despite the relief rally, Bitcoin’s aggregate open interest remains stable, around $31.4 billion, or about 34% lower than $47.8 billion on October 10. CryptoQuantum the data shows.
Although new positions are contributing to the rally, investor positioning remains well below the market’s previous peak.
The run-up to January 2 has been accompanied by a skewed order book 5% and 10% deep from the current price, indicating that sellers are in control, according to glass coin data. The Coinbase Premium indicator has also remained largely negative, suggesting that spot demand for Bitcoin among US investors is weak.
While perpetual positioning may be unstable, the options market shows a more promising change. The 25-day 7-day delta bias, a premium for downside protection, recently turned positive, suggesting that the recovery has eased the need for bearish bets. The 30-day bias remains negative but is close to zero, according to Deribit data.
“On the options front, positioning has become increasingly constructive with a reduction in selling bias across all timeframes and with over 3,000 $100,000 Jan 30, 2026 contracts purchased since last week,” according to Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital on Monday. note.
Still, QCP analysts struck a note of caution, saying that much of the recent demand for upside exposure came from options trades designed to profit from large price moves in either direction.
That activity suggests Bitcoin’s rally was driven in part by short covering as traders rushed to close bearish bets rather than fresh, conviction buying.
“The backdrop is favorable: January ETF flows have been strong, led by institutional demand, and major wealth platforms are expanding access,” said Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets. Decipher. “Seasonality also helps; the Santa Claus rally provided momentum through January, and the first quarter typically favors risk assets when liquidity is favorable.”
However, Lucas maintains a cautious stance, suggesting traders keep an eye on the decline, particularly the $92,000 and $90,000 levels, in case ETF inflows fade or macroeconomic conditions turn tough.
“For now, the bid looks won, but any break above $95,000 needs volume; if it’s tight, expect profit taking before the next leg,” Lucas said.
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