It has been a turbulent and volatile fourth quarter for Bitcoin in 2025. BTC has endured a turbulent December, with prices falling nearly 9% and volatility rising to levels not seen since April 2025.
In their latest “ChainCheck” report in mid-December, digital asset analysts at VanEck painted a nuanced picture: while on-chain activity remains weak, liquidity conditions are improving and speculative leverage appears to be restoring, offering cautious optimism for long-term holders.
The firm highlighted contrasting behaviors between different groups of investors. Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT) have been actively buying during the dip, accumulating 42,000 BTC, their largest addition since July, bringing aggregate holdings to over one million BTC.
This contrasts with investors in Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs), who have reduced their exposure, underscoring a shift towards corporate accumulation over retail-led speculation.
VanEck analysts noted that some DATs are exploring alternative financing methods, including issuing preferred stock rather than common stock, to finance purchases and operations, reflecting a more strategic, long-term approach.
Onchain data also revealed a divergence between medium and long-term holders. Tokens held for one to five years have seen significant movement, suggesting profit-taking or portfolio turnover, while coins held for more than five years remain largely untouched.
VanEck interprets this as a sign that cyclical or short-term participants are dumping assets, while older cohorts maintain their conviction in Bitcoin’s future.
Bitcoin Miners Face Hashrate Drop
Meanwhile, miners have faced a particularly challenging environment. Network hash rates fell 4% in December, VanEck says (the steepest drop since April 2024), as high-capacity operations in regions like Xinjiang cut production amid regulatory pressures. Breakeven electricity costs for major mining rigs have also decreased, reflecting tighter profit margins.
Historically, however, VanEck notes that falling hash rates can serve as a bullish contrarian indicator: periods of declining network power have often preceded positive 90- to 180-day forward returns.
VanEck’s team frames its analysis within the GEO (Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, On-Chain Activity) framework, designed to assess the structural health of Bitcoin beyond daily price fluctuations.
Under this lens, improved liquidity and accrual by DATs provide a counterbalance to softer on-chain metrics, including new address stagnation and declining transaction fees.
Broader macroeconomic trends add complexity to Bitcoin’s prospects. The US dollar has weakened to near three-month lows, rallying precious metals, but Bitcoin and other crypto assets remain under pressure.
In parallel, the evolving financial ecosystem can offer new support. Market watchers point to the rise of “everything exchanges,” platforms that aim to integrate stock, cryptocurrency and prediction markets, leveraging AI-powered trading and settlement systems.
Last week, Coinbase made an ‘everything exchange’-like move and launched an expansion to its platform, introducing stock trading, prediction markets, futures, and other features. Companies entering this space, from traditional brokerages to crypto-native firms, are competing for market share, potentially increasing Bitcoin’s liquidity and utility over time, VanEck says.
Bitcoin Price Volatility
Despite this, volatility remains a defining characteristic. While Bitcoin has doubled in value over the past two years and nearly tripled in three, the lack of extreme highs or dips has tempered expectations. Bitcoin’s future movements may be more measured, and medium-term investors are likely to see smaller cyclical peaks and troughs rather than the dramatic swings of previous cycles.
VanEck said the overall market is in a correction. Short- and medium-term speculative activity is receding, long-term holders are stable, and institutional accumulation is increasing. Along with signs of mining capitulation, moderate volatility and macroeconomic dynamics, the company frames the current environment as one of structural recalibration.
As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin may be in a period of consolidation that reflects broader market maturation, VanEck said. This may result in some strong positive price movements in the first quarter of next year.
