CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has set a clear baseline for Bitcoin’s current correction, but insists it should not be confused with a prediction.
“A lot of people don’t seem to understand this, so let me clarify,” he wrote. “I’m not saying $56,000 is the bottom. I’m saying the realized price is 56,000. If you follow the cycle theory, that level would be the bottom. But I think the cycle theory is broken and the price could change at any time depending on macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment.”
The realized price of Bitcoin stands at $56,000
Its latest data report divides the market into three layers: futures, spot and on-chain.
In the futures market, Ju says the average order size shows that whale futures are gone and retail trading now dominates. Internal flow profile (IFP) data indicates that BTC inflows from spot to futures exchanges have collapsed, ending the phase where big players posted BTC as collateral for long trading.
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At the same time, the estimated leverage ratio remains high, with Binance’s deposit cost basis sitting at around $57,000, which “means traders have already made big profits from ETFs and institutional flows.” Open interest is still above last year’s levels, while the aggregate funding rate is neutral, not fearful, suggesting leverage remains elevated but without a classic capitulation reset.
Specific data point to a decrease in institutional aggression. Ju notes that Coinbase Premium is at its lowest level in nine months, which he attributes to institutional selling driven by ETFs. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen negative net weekly flows for three consecutive weeks, and the strategy’s mNAV at 1.23 implies that “near-term capital raising appears difficult” as many structured strategies already boast substantial gains.
On-chain metrics provide context for the much-discussed $56,000 level. Ju notes that realized cap growth has been stagnant for three days, while market cap is growing more slowly than realized cap, a setup he interprets as strong selling pressure as profitable coins move.
CryptoQuant’s PnL index came up short on November 8, which Ju sums up as whales taking profits. “If the cycle theory holds true, the cycle bottom would be around $56,000 (realized price),” he says, immediately distancing himself from treating that as a hard and fast rule in a structurally changing market.
CryptoQuant CEO Rejects Classic Cycle Bottom Theory
In a separate forecast segment, Ju addresses macroeconomic conditions. “Short-term conditions are weak: dollar liquidity is sluggish, funding markets are tight, and Bitcoin inflows have cooled,” he writes. However, he adds, “I don’t expect Bitcoin inflows to stop or turn into sustained outflows over the next six months.”
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In his opinion, a change in the political narrative could quickly reverse sentiment: “If rate cuts or any easy money narrative appear, sentiment could change and liquidity would quickly return to ETFs.”
Ju also outlines a longer-term structural thesis. He argues that the adoption of stablecoins and a wave of reverse ICOs by public companies could drive traditional assets onto DEXs, enabling on-chain long and short trading of names like Tesla. In that world, on-chain analytics could evolve to tagging wallets like “Elon Musk’s ETH address to track the inflows and outflows of Tesla coins on-chain.”
He believes Bitcoin would benefit the most, while altcoins with weak narratives or no real performance would likely lose liquidity as capital focuses on assets with clear utility or narrative strength.
“I stopped predicting the price of Bitcoin,” Ju reminds his followers, “but I haven’t stopped analyzing data.” Its $56,000 reference is best understood in that spirit: a data-driven anchor derived from cycle theory and realized price, not a promise that this drawdown will clearly end along those lines.
At the time of publication, BTC was trading at $91,659.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
