Bitcoin is trading near $110,000, but its long-term profit and loss signal shows the same curve alignment that preceded each of the three major sell-offs in its history. The 365-day moving average of the PnL index, tracked by CryptoQuant, reached similar figures in 2013, 2017 and 2021, and each time, there was a drop of around 75-80% the following year.
During those periods, the market value fell from $1,100 to $200, then from $19,700 to $3,200, and later from $69,000 to $15,500. Each reset aligned with the halving pattern that reduces the new supply of Bitcoin every four years, shaping the recurring cycle of expansion and contraction.
The current curve is once again approaching its upper band, showing that profit taking is now greater than new accumulation.
If the proportional structure repeats, a full pullback could put Bitcoin between $22,000 and $30,000 before the next halving recovery begins. On-chain metrics show a cooling of realized profits, a reduction in transaction intensity and minor outflows from long-term wallets, all typical of the final phases of the cycle.
Future of Bitcoin
The timeline is clear for CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju: one year of acceleration, one of peak formation, and two of correction before the next halving resets the pattern. The current slope of the PnL index, which has been flattening since its 2024 peak, aligns perfectly with its historical pace.
So the future of Bitcoin depends on whether this four-year cycle continues to control the market or is finally broken. If it holds, the next deep reset could be the start of the 2026 accumulation phase.
