No one has a crystal ball, but if Bitcoin continues to behave according to its past cycles, chances are we have already reached the top.
Bitcoin posted an all-time high on October 6, but failed to extend the move as the post-halving clock approaches the peak zone seen in previous cycles.
The 2024 halving occurred on April 20, with previous peaks arriving approximately 526 days after the 2016 halving and 546 days after the 2020 halving.
At that cadence, the maximum window of the current cycle extends approximately from mid-October to the end of November.
The October 6 print near $126,200 has not been recovered, with spot trading ranging between $105,000 and $114,000 and key support near $108,000.
The opportune moment now crosses with a clear macroeconomic shock.
Off the record high, the White House announced a new tariff package on Chinese imports, including rates of up to 100 percent for some products. The headline hit cryptocurrencies as futures deleveraged approximately $19 billion in liquidations in 24 hours.
Derivatives positioning also changed, with greater demand for downside protection after the decline. Tensions over funding on the traditional side also flickered, as Reuters reported an unusual rise in use of the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility, a sign that short-term dollar funding was reduced in the same window.
Flow tape remains the short-term arbiter. US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds have operated as the marginal buyer of the cycle. Farside Investors publishes daily consolidated creations and redemptions that allow a quick read on whether cash is coming in or coming out of the wrapper.
CoinShares, which tracks broader digital asset products, provides context for weekly fund flow. A streak of large net inflows lasting several sessions would keep the door open to a marginal late-cycle high.
A rough to negative streak would reinforce the argument that October 6 marked the top of the cycle.
A scenario framework helps translate those inputs into prices and time.
Historical bear runs on Bitcoin lasted about 12 to 18 months and fell about 57 percent in 2018 and 76 percent in 2014 from peak to trough, a pattern charted by NYDIG.
The market structure now includes spot ETFs and deeper derivatives markets, so a lighter band of 35 to 55 percent is a reasonable benchmark for managing downside risk. Applied to $126,272, that produces low zones of approximately $82,000 to $57,000.
That timeline would place a minimum sometime between late 2026 and early 2027, broadly in line with the halving cadence mentioned above.
The probability that a ceiling has already been reached increases when time, macro, and flow lean the same way. The halving clock is delayed in the typical range.
The tariff shock created uncertainty in the real economy and a visible risk premium in derivatives. The use of repo facilities jumped due to lower dollar liquidity.
Bitcoin price has failed to stay above the early October high and is now trading below the first support. The burden of proof is on the lawsuit, and the ETF tape is the cleanest daily measure.
Some argue that the traditional Bitcoin cycle ended when ETFs were launched, but new demand never ended the cyclical pattern in the past. Will he really do it now?
To date, each Bitcoin cycle has generated diminishing returns. If $126,000 is indeed the peak of this cycle, that would equate to an 82% gain.
| From top previous → new top | previous ATH ($) | New ATH ($) | % gain from previous high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 → 2013 | 31 | 1,177 | 3,696.8% |
| 2013 → 2017 | 1,177 | 19,783 | 1,580.8% |
| 2017 → 2021 | 19,783 | 69,000 | 248.6% |
| 2021 → 2025 (assumed) | 69,000 | 126,000 | 82.6% |
The first decline (cycle 1→2) caused returns to fall by approximately 57%.
The next drop (Cycle 2→3) saw another ~84% reduction.
If that rate of decay had continued proportionately (about 70% to 80% less each cycle), the expected return would have been about 50% to 70%, not 82%.
Therefore, the potential gain of 82% already represents a minor drop compared to the exponential decline pattern implied in previous cycles.
The relative performance of this cycle is above trend, potentially indicating a mature but still resilient cycle, even if this is the maximum.
| Cycle transition | Previous profit (%) | Next profit (%) | Drop ratio | % retained from previous cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011–2013 → 2013–2017 | 3,696.8 | 1,580.8 | 0.43 | 43% |
| 2013–2017 → 2017–2021 | 1,580.8 | 248.6 | 0.16 | 16% |
| 2017–2021 → 2021–2025 | 248.6 | 82.6 | 0.33 | 33% |
While historical returns show a clear decline curve, this cycle’s potential 82% rise slightly breaks the expected downward slope, suggesting the start of a slower decline phase or structural changes (e.g. ETF demand, institutional capital) moderating the long-term trend of declining returns.
The opposite case requires a specific sequence.
A five- to 10-day streak of broad net creations across the ETF complex would show persistent cash demand.
The options bias would have to swing back toward demands for more than a transient bounce, a change that third-party dashboards like Laevitas.
Spot would then have to liquidate and hold above $126,272 with expanding volume.
That path could produce a new marginal high in the $135,000 to $155,000 area before distribution resumes, a pattern echoed in our comments from previous cycles.
If those conditions do not form by the end of the traditional period of 518 to 580 days, the weather itself becomes a headwind.
Miners add another forward signal. Hash unit revenue after the halving has compressed and fee participation has moderated due to spring spikes, reducing cash flow for older fleets. The economy and fleet turnover dynamics are tracked by the Hashrate index.
If the price weakens while energy costs remain firm, periodic miner sales may arise to cover operating costs and pay down debt. This supply tends to satisfy scarce order books after crises. Chain titration bands such as MVRV and MVRV-Z help frame end-of-cycle risk, although absolute thresholds vary by cycle and should not be used in isolation.
Macro carries his own marker.
The dollar’s trajectory interacts with risk appetite, and Reuters currency reviews provide an up-to-date reading on relative strength. Rate expectations are tracked by CME FedWatch, which helps interpret whether the tariff shock and any subsequent inflationary pressures are altering the course of policy.
If easing expectations decline while the repo facility remains elevated, liquidity for speculative assets may remain limited.
Readers can keep track of the framework with the following table.
| Script | Conditions for viewing | Plausible path | Price range and calendar | what invalidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up already in | ETF flows remain stable or negative, a strong put bias and tighter dollar liquidity persist. | Sideways distribution from 94k to 122k, then breakout into repeat closes below ~108k | 35% to 55% ATH reduction, minimum 82k to 57k, 12 to 18 months | Five to ten days in a row of broad ETF inflows, bias changes, decisive close above $126,272 |
| Late marginal maximum | Multi-session ETF creations, calmer trading headlines, weaker dollar. | Fast push through ATH, fails on second attempt, reversal to range | 135,000 to 155,000 in Q4, then mean reversion | Return of exits and persistent sales demand |
| Expanded Upper Building | Mixed ETF flows, contained volatility and macroeconomic noise persists | Range trades between 100,000 and 125,000 until end of November, high based on time | Second attempt postponed until early 2026, then distribution | Strong and sustained net creations or a clean breakout with volume |
The leverage profile requires patience. Traders added downside hedges after the tariff shock instead of chasing profits. This is consistent with a market more focused on capital preservation than momentum.
If ETF inflows do not resume quickly, traders’ hedging flows through put option purchases may keep rallies contained. If input resumes, the structure can change quickly, which is why the treadmill needs daily attention.
None of this discounts the structural supply in Bitcoin created by the ETF wrapper or the long-term effect of a fixed supply. Maps the end-of-cycle configuration that now carries macro pressure. The halving timer is approaching the end of its historical window.
The October 6 high is the price to beat. Until the flows change the equilibrium, the distribution case remains the cleanest.
