Bitcoin’s pain is not over, but the next rally could already be brewing

The recent 10% decrease in Bitcoin from its historical maximum of August 13, $ 124,400 to approximately $ 111,500 has shaken the feeling.

In spite of this, the data in the chain suggest that “the foundations for the next upward phase are clearly taking shape in the chain.”

Maximum pain or perfect entry?

While retail merchants are still eager to “buy the fall,” Cryptoquant explained that history shows that lasting funds are formed only after optimism fades and capitulation is strengthened. The average holder now has a loss, as evidenced by an important signal, which is the 30 -day MVRV ratio that fell below zero for the first time since September 10.

The negative levels of MVRV have consistently indicated undervaluation zones already often preceded strong reversions as risk adjusted entry points improve. At the same time, the behavior of Bitcoin whales validates this constructive background.

Cryptoquant’s exchange value bands reveal that the wallets between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC continue to accumulate, which is in line with the Santimento data that show more than 56,000 BTC added by large holders since the end of August. This accumulation during volatility points to trust and reduces the probability of an extended recession.

In addition to this bullish trifepa, Exchange reserves have fallen by more than 31,000 BTC in the last month, thus extending a long -term bearish trend that limits the available supply and facilitates the sale pressure. All these factors create a configuration where strategic accumulation, particularly through an average cost in dollars in key support areas, remains a rational play.

Although another sales wave driven by fear could still grab the market before a true lower part of “maximum pain” is formed, these chain trends highlight that Bitcoin’s current setback has less to do with structural weakness and more about establishing the essential bases for the next leg.

The next bitcoin catalyst

QCP Capital also said that the strong sale of Bitcoin can be less a bearish warning and more a healthy restart, which is expected to prepare the scenario for a fresh catalyst.

Despite the agitation, BTC is maintained above the levels of $ 112,000, while the shares are joined in the records of cutting cuts and gold of the Fed, in the midst of a broader risk appetite. QCP believes that the washing drained the speculative excess of the Altcoins, eliminating the Altcoin season index of about 100 to 65 and increases the BTC domain to 57%.

This rotation returns to Bitcoin, together with the firm institutional support of players such as the strategy and the Metaplanet and the ETF inputs of stable points, confirms the attractiveness of the asset as the market anchor. Historically, the weak September has still left Bitcoin 4%, while merchants accumulate 120K-125K of October, since they anticipate the strongest seasonal month of the crypto.

Meanwhile, merchants can anticipate additional Fed fees cuts if Powell’s comments are observed on Wednesday and the publication of PCE main data on Friday confirms the ease of inflation. This could attract a capital influx.