Why August always break Bitcoin and what September means for merchants

The seasonal weakness of Bitcoin in August has long baffled merchants.

The data in the chain, however, reveal a recurring controller in the form of the sales pressure of miners.

Mining pressure you can’t ignore

The miners ensure the Bitcoin network and obtain income in BTC, however, their expenses, such as electricity, hardware and cooling, are called Fiat. During the summer, particularly in August, energy demand increases worldwide as heat waves tense energy networks in the main mining centers such as Texas, Kazakhstan and China.

The highest electricity costs leave the miners with few more options than liquidating larger portions of their BTC reserves. This pressure clearly appeared in the Cryptoquant exchange mining flow data, which highlights the peaks in transfers to exchanges during August.

Historically, these increases are aligned with local market tops or the middle of the cycle, which intensifies the downward impulse as well as the general liquidity is thinned due to a reduced institutional participation in the summer.

The result is a seasonal imbalance, which means more Bitcoin supply flood exchanges, while demand is temporarily faded. For merchants, this pattern is more than a coincidence. In fact, it provides a tactical signal. Anticipating the weakness driven by the miners allows the short -term players to cover or adjust the positions before the corrections are deepened. However, for long -term investors, the capitulation of miners often creates favorable accumulation opportunities ahead of the strongest autumn manifestations.

As such, August’s flows are transformed into a challenge and a potential advantage. The record consisting of the chain suggests that Bitcoin does not dislike August; It is simply the month in which miners must sell more aggressively to cover energy invoices.

Opportunity in September?

When the market entered September, analysts warned that this month is historically bassist for the asset. The data show that BTC established its high or low monthly in the first 12 days more than 80% of the time, often in the midst of volatility.

September has proven to be the weakest month of Bitcoin, since he saw negative returns in 8 of the last 12 years, including the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles when more than 7%fell. The projections suggest a possible fall to $ 100,000 before recovery, although October and November historically offer strong profits.

Merchants see the corrections in early September as potential purchase opportunities before seasonal demonstrations.