There are few more insufferable things in financial markets than discussions of seasonal indicators. The grandfather can be “selling in May, then leaving”, that each spring is crawling, but it probably has not been a valid signal since the days of Jesse Livermore, when the merchants were literally sold in May and then headed to the beach during the summer.
A set of seasonal indicators has developed around cryptography, even when markets, only a few years, have very few observations so that something is statistically valid. Among the favorites is that August tends to be a difficult month for prices.
However, the loan where you owe: Fans of seasonality did it well this time, at least for Bitcoin .
Despite the continuous entries in the ETF Spot, the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, changing from Hawk to Dove, and playing a new Bitcoin record, Bitcoin. (With just a few hours to go)It has slipped 8% this month. Just above $ 108,000, Bitcoin has also decreased around 13% since he reached that new record above $ 124,000 on August 13.
The sale has eliminated Bitcoin’s summer rally, the price now modestly below its fall level of the fallen of $ 109,500.
Capital is not infinite
Bitcoin’s bad record this month contrasts with Ether’s (Eth)which increased by 14% in August, thus surpassing BTC for a whopping 2,200 basic points.
The relative increase in Ether occurred, since it attracted large amounts of capital through ETH Treasury companies and the spot Eth Ethfs.
Launched a few months after spot BTC ETFs, the ETH funds had seen much more modest tickets than very popular BTC vehicles. That has changed in a great way.
This month’s ETH ETF until August 28 saw $ 4 billion versus entries only $ 629 million for BTC ETF, according to James Seyffart de Bloomberg. That is only impressive, but when the relative market limits are considered (the $ 500 billion of ETHER are less than 25% of the $ 2.1 billion BTC, those numbers are much more amazing.
In a world where the United States Fed is executing a modestly adjusted monetary policy and fiscal policy is becoming stricter thanks to the highest rates (also known as higher taxes)Capital is limited. For cryptography in August, at least, that capital was directed to Ether, apparently at Bitcoin’s expense.
The perspective
First, bad news: seasonality patterns suggest that September tends to be even worse for Bitcoin than August. In twelve Septembers Rev returned to 2013, Bitcoin has decreased by eight, according to Glassnode. In the four times that BTC achieved an advance that month, the profits were quite modest. In total, the September average in the last twelve years has been negative of 3.8%.
The good news: they are the twelve Septembers and that is only a sample size large enough to pay attention. In addition, at least seven of those observations (2013-2019) Before Bitcoin was more than a marginal asset and on the radar screen of only a few investors.
