Key control:
Ether fell below $ 4,300 after not maintaining the impulse above $ 4,700, with $ 338 million in liquidations that add to the sale pressure.
Analysts highlight $ 4,300 as a fundamental support, but the history of September weakness increases the risk of a 10%reduction.
A contraction of open interest and negative financing rates suggest that long positions are being prosecuted, which could establish a rebound if the demand for points returns.
Ethher (ETH) could not keep the impulse above the resistance of $ 4,700 this week, falling below $ 4,300 the region on Friday, where a critical ascending line of ascending line of trend was violated, popularized by Tom Lee de Fundstrat.
The measure is produced in the middle of the liquidity of the market and follows a broader liquidation of $ 338 million of ether futures between August 22 and 23, which increases the probability of a deeper correction in September.
Lee and Fundestrat Mark Newton analyst marked The level of $ 4,300 as a fundamental floor on Tuesday, citing readings of the Neutral Relative Force Index (RSI) and a cloud structure of Ichimoku still exhausted as reasons for optimism.
However, the current situation seems gloomy with the seasonality of September that throws a shadow on the upward configuration. Coinglass data indicates Historically, September has been the weakest month of Ether, with Altcoin publishing its worst average yields of -12.55% during this period. This historical bias towards reductions suggests that short -term risks remain biased at the disadvantage if Ether loses key support at $ 4,300.
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Growing divergence in the open interest trends of ether
Future positioning has also become cautious. According to the analyst AMR TahaThe daily percentage change in the open interest of ETH (OI) registered a higher minimum compared to its last channel, but the absolute open interest fell to a low lower one in Binance. This divergence points to the structural imbalance, with retail merchants closing a long exposure instead of adding new positions.
Total Eth OI hired approximately $ 9 billion. Interestingly, the last open interest compressed to this brand, ETH recovered abruptly at $ 4,900, suggesting that a similar cleaning of excessive leverage could lay the foundations for recovery.
At the same time, financing rates in the main exchanges turned negative, indicating a brief domain in perpetual markets. The combination of an open interest drop and negative financing rates confirms that the lengths are rinsed, not initiated.
However, historically, such conditions can also precede crisp reversals, since negative financing often indicates a short superpoblated position that can feed a faster bundle bouncing than expected once the demand intervenes.
From a technical point of view, the highest term graphics exhibit weakness in the monthly closure. Historically, at the beginning of September it has the greatest probability of a correction, so the possibility of a 10% drop in current prices could take place in the first week.
The immediate support to observe is about $ 4,180, although a decisive rebound of this level seems less likely since the current breakdown follows a prolonged bullish phase.
On the other hand, market participants can position themselves psychologically below the threshold of $ 4,000, with the $ 3,900– $ 3,700 zone aligning with a daily rating gap of fair value (FVG) that could attract offers.
If this area fails, the attention would change to the next FVG between $ 3,100 and $ 3,300. This region could serve as a fundamental turning point for a broader continuation of the upward market.
A breakdown would then mark a significant change in the highest and potentially generating questions about the sustainability of the Ether bull cycle.
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This article does not contain advice or investment recommendations. Each investment and trade movement implies risk, and readers must carry out their own investigation by making a decision.
